Sitemap - 2019 - The Credit Writedowns Newsletter
Some soft US data doesn't yet mean recession
Take back control: the revolt of the working class
Anti-globalization, Brexit and the Labour Party Meltdown
Expect a dovish hold from the Fed despite the jobs report
Some thoughts on illegal immigration
A breakdown of the post-war global Western alliance
US economic outlook mixed as manufacturing continues to slow
MMT Heaven and MMT Hell for Chinese Investment and U.S. Fiscal Spending
Economic growth and social contracts in rich countries
Where are we on growth and macro policy right now?
This jobs report is a game-changer regarding monetary policy. Here's why
Recession watch, Fed policy, wealth taxes and the 2020 US election
The Fed's overtightening and the shift to a fiscal paradigm
Trump impeachment strategy makes Elizabeth Warren and Democratic sweep possible
The US economy is doing fine and the jobs picture is good
Inter-subjectivity, norms, the rule of law and Donald Trump
WeWork as an intermediary with a duration mismatch
Policy divergence and the week's monetary policy decisions
Watch for a re-emergence of the convergence to zero play
Ever closer union and euroscepticism
The dollar liquidity squeeze and Germany's weak real economy
Positive thoughts on my return from Germany and London
The end of global co-operation among liberal democracies
Our over-reliance on monetary policy is the problem
The Fed overtightened. Now it's behind the curve. Recession awaits
Why my base case for 2020 is recession
Competitive currency devaluation and the currency war
The trade-currency war will crystallize downside risks
Trade war escalation highlights downside economic risks
Signs of recession are hitting Europe. Is the new Central Bank president up for the challenge?
A variety of pre-FOMC thoughts on the economy
Why what economists are now saying about inflation matters
US GDP report puts nail in the coffin for the recession story
The awful news coming out of Germany
Dreams of a Second Half Recovery
Obama the Conservative vs Trump the Revolutionary
The Downside Risk to the Mid-2019 Macroeconomy
What the yield curve is signaling about the US economy
More negative signals, this time from the economy
The Fed basically has to cut now
Geopolitical confrontation and the breakdown of globalization
The US economy is now on recession watch
Henry George: The economist to watch in the 21st Century
More on the Collapse of the Center
American global hegemony is breaking down — here’s what could come next
China Cannot Weaponize Its U.S. Treasury Bonds
Automatic stabilizers and a neutral fiscal stance
China's 'weaponising' Treasuries, automatic stabilizers, and investing versus losing money at WeWork
The hardening trade war and the pause in IPO easy money
Risk-off selling continues as Uber slides
Just when you thought it was risk-on
Facecoin, Slack and loss-making IPOs
IPOs, a global rebound and Tariff Man
2019 may be the best time to IPO
Brief thoughts on the jobs report
Green light for the Fed, bullish data out of China and the Eurobonds solution
The huge beat in US GDP growth
Re-acceleration, but for how long?
The strong dollar and Chinese reform
Division and divisiveness in the 21st century
I am a true believer in the economic re-acceleration thesis now. Here's why
Trying something different: on the Economic re-acceleration thesis and other topics
Surging markets, low volatility, and fake liquidity
No catalysts for global recession as Brexit gets long extension
Brexit: Theresa May hints at Article 50 revocation
Jobs report is a Goldilocks report this month. Here's why
Are interest rates the most effective economic policy tool?
The global economic supertanker is not unsinkable but...
On global bond markets predicting recession, collapsing net interest margins and Sweden as the model
The Fed will end up playing chicken with bond markets
The Fed has inverted the yield curve
Airbus and Boeing are signing economic suicide pacts with Beijing
US curve inversion worsens as the Fed acquiesces to market sentiment
Brexit as Europe's Lehman moment
UK now closer to crashing out of the EU with no deal than ever before
What the Fed needs to do this week to assuage the bond market
Deutsche Bank, QT, the Fed's outlook, the recent PMIs, and the Lyft IPO
Horrible continuing claims data speak to decelerating job growth
US economy, Brexit, and the global slowdown during an equities rally
People are finally realizing that the jobs picture has weakened
ECB's reversal, covenant lite vulnerability, and delinquent mortgages
Bullish ISM data and some thoughts on stall speed
The stall speed US economy and fireworks in Europe
GDP growth surprise, jobless claims and the second referendum debate
May has admitted she could delay Article 50. What comes next?
Random musings about populism and work
The rebellion against no-deal Brexit and recession in Europe
Minotaurs, Baumol's Disease, Brexit and my bone to pick with Albert Edwards
"Trump unchained" moves on to border security and Europe
More on retail sales, plus Amazon, Facebook and the national emergency
How to interpret rising claims and the horrible retail sales figures
A few thoughts on the populist political environment in the US
IMF backs Fed rate pause citing rising global risks, Japan decelerates
German Social Democrats abandoning third way rhetoric
On speculation about the ECB restarting QE due to slowing growth
Jobless claims are now flashing red too
Some insights into (declining) US economic health
The Fed is reacting to slowing global growth, not asset markets
How to think about deficit spending by a sovereign government
Can a slowing China tip a stall-speed US into recession?
China's slowdown and emerging consensus for global recession
China's 'Minsky Moment' and an inevitable second referendum
The European Union may not survive the euro
Sliding toward a no-deal Brexit and a US recession?
An update on Brexit as German GDP growth wanes
The border wall and the Fed's reaction function
The oil bull market, IPO freeze, weak UK data and preventing no-deal Brexit
Some comments on the shutdown, Fed policy and the markets
Brexit: Why Article 50 revocation is now on the table for Britain
British MPs have voted to stop a no-deal Brexit
Credit Writedowns 2019 Outlook, Part 2 - Brexit
Some thoughts on today's 312,000 jobs added to the economy
Powell, Bernanke and Yellen offer a strong rebuke of Trump
Growth downshift warning as Apple's guidance downgrade trumps mixed data