The Credit Writedowns Newsletter

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Goodbye to Credit Writedowns
Good morning everyone,
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Edward Harrison
10
Risks to growth and inflation helping keep long rates down
As I write this, the US 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 1.457%, well under the trading range it had established during this quarter. And there are a…
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Edward Harrison
3
What's your model on how real GDP grows durably?
Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a…
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Edward Harrison
1
Do inflation expectations even matter anymore?
We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%. That's above expectations. And, we saw a mild uptick in US Treasury bond yields on the back of the number. But I am…
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Edward Harrison
The Death of the US Treasury Bond Vigilante
Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months. And this happened…
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Edward Harrison
3
US jobs report fails to reinforce tapering narrative; bad news is good news
The US jobs report came in south of expectations, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 559,000 in May but the unemployment falling to a pandemic low of…
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Edward Harrison
1
ADP and claims data show US employment progress
We got reads from two US jobs data series this morning. And both showed continued forward progress. To me, this speaks to the potential for tapering of…
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Edward Harrison
The macro crystal ball: macro framing and historical antecedents
Happy June.!!
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Edward Harrison

May 2021

Where were claims at this point in the last cycle?
To understand the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve's tapering timetable being accelerated, I believe we have to understand how quickly the US…
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Edward Harrison
4
How transitory is transitory, housing edition?
In yesterday's post, the question was this: how bad do inflationary impulses have to get - even if they're just transitory - to matter? The Fed is…
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Edward Harrison
1
How Transitory is Transitory?
The interplay between a central bank's forward guidance and market expectations are where the rubber hits the road on long-term interest rates. It's not…
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Edward Harrison
1
Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future
I was talking to my colleague Jack Farley about the financial news flow earlier today. (We're recording a Real Vision Daily Briefing at 4:30PM EDT). He…
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Edward Harrison
1
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