The Credit Writedowns Newsletter

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Goodbye to Credit Writedowns
Good morning everyone,
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Edward Harrison
10
Risks to growth and inflation helping keep long rates down
As I write this, the US 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 1.457%, well under the trading range it had established during this quarter.
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Edward Harrison
3
What's your model on how real GDP grows durably?
Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a…
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Edward Harrison
1
Do inflation expectations even matter anymore?
We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%.
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Edward Harrison
The Death of the US Treasury Bond Vigilante
Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months.
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Edward Harrison
3
US jobs report fails to reinforce tapering narrative; bad news is good news
The US jobs report came in south of expectations, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 559,000 in May but the unemployment falling to a pandemic low of…
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Edward Harrison
1
ADP and claims data show US employment progress
We got reads from two US jobs data series this morning.
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Edward Harrison
The macro crystal ball: macro framing and historical antecedents
Happy June.!!
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Edward Harrison

May 2021

Where were claims at this point in the last cycle?
To understand the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve's tapering timetable being accelerated, I believe we have to understand how quickly the US…
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Edward Harrison
4
How transitory is transitory, housing edition?
In yesterday's post, the question was this: how bad do inflationary impulses have to get - even if they're just transitory - to matter?
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Edward Harrison
1
How Transitory is Transitory?
The interplay between a central bank's forward guidance and market expectations are where the rubber hits the road on long-term interest rates.
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Edward Harrison
1
Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future
I was talking to my colleague Jack Farley about the financial news flow earlier today.
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Edward Harrison
1
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