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Goodbye to Credit Writedowns
Good morning everyone,
Jun 17, 2021
•
Edward Harrison
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Goodbye to Credit Writedowns
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Risks to growth and inflation helping keep long rates down
As I write this, the US 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 1.457%, well under the trading range it had established during this quarter.
Jun 11, 2021
•
Edward Harrison
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Risks to growth and inflation helping keep long rates down
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What's your model on how real GDP grows durably?
Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a…
Jun 10, 2021
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Edward Harrison
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What's your model on how real GDP grows durably?
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Do inflation expectations even matter anymore?
We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%.
Jun 10, 2021
•
Edward Harrison
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Do inflation expectations even matter anymore?
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The Death of the US Treasury Bond Vigilante
Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months.
Jun 9, 2021
•
Edward Harrison
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The Death of the US Treasury Bond Vigilante
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US jobs report fails to reinforce tapering narrative; bad news is good news
The US jobs report came in south of expectations, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 559,000 in May but the unemployment falling to a pandemic low of…
Jun 4, 2021
•
Edward Harrison
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US jobs report fails to reinforce tapering narrative; bad news is good news
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ADP and claims data show US employment progress
We got reads from two US jobs data series this morning.
Jun 3, 2021
•
Edward Harrison
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ADP and claims data show US employment progress
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The macro crystal ball: macro framing and historical antecedents
Happy June.!!
Jun 1, 2021
•
Edward Harrison
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The macro crystal ball: macro framing and historical antecedents
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May 2021
Where were claims at this point in the last cycle?
To understand the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve's tapering timetable being accelerated, I believe we have to understand how quickly the US…
May 27, 2021
•
Edward Harrison
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Where were claims at this point in the last cycle?
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How transitory is transitory, housing edition?
In yesterday's post, the question was this: how bad do inflationary impulses have to get - even if they're just transitory - to matter?
May 27, 2021
•
Edward Harrison
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How transitory is transitory, housing edition?
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How Transitory is Transitory?
The interplay between a central bank's forward guidance and market expectations are where the rubber hits the road on long-term interest rates.
May 26, 2021
•
Edward Harrison
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How Transitory is Transitory?
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Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future
I was talking to my colleague Jack Farley about the financial news flow earlier today.
May 24, 2021
•
Edward Harrison
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Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future
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