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Goodbye to Credit Writedowns
Good morning everyone, I have some exciting — and also - sad news to tell you today. First, I am going to Bloomberg as a Senior Editor. And I am going…
Jun 17, 2021
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Edward Harrison
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Goodbye to Credit Writedowns
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Risks to growth and inflation helping keep long rates down
As I write this, the US 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 1.457%, well under the trading range it had established during this quarter. And there are a…
Jun 11, 2021
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Edward Harrison
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Risks to growth and inflation helping keep long rates down
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What's your model on how real GDP grows durably?
Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a…
Jun 10, 2021
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Edward Harrison
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What's your model on how real GDP grows durably?
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Do inflation expectations even matter anymore?
We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%. That's above expectations. And, we saw a mild uptick in US Treasury bond yields on the back of the number. But I am…
Jun 10, 2021
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Edward Harrison
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Do inflation expectations even matter anymore?
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The Death of the US Treasury Bond Vigilante
Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months. And this happened…
Jun 9, 2021
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Edward Harrison
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The Death of the US Treasury Bond Vigilante
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US jobs report fails to reinforce tapering narrative; bad news is good news
The US jobs report came in south of expectations, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 559,000 in May but the unemployment falling to a pandemic low of…
Jun 4, 2021
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Edward Harrison
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US jobs report fails to reinforce tapering narrative; bad news is good news
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ADP and claims data show US employment progress
We got reads from two US jobs data series this morning. And both showed continued forward progress. To me, this speaks to the potential for tapering of…
Jun 3, 2021
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Edward Harrison
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ADP and claims data show US employment progress
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The macro crystal ball: macro framing and historical antecedents
Happy June.!! Listen, I want to start this month with a thought piece rather than a data piece. And this is going to be a pretty long post. But I think…
Jun 1, 2021
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Edward Harrison
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The macro crystal ball: macro framing and historical antecedents
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May 2021
Where were claims at this point in the last cycle?
To understand the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve's tapering timetable being accelerated, I believe we have to understand how quickly the US…
May 27, 2021
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Edward Harrison
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Where were claims at this point in the last cycle?
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How transitory is transitory, housing edition?
In yesterday's post, the question was this: how bad do inflationary impulses have to get - even if they're just transitory - to matter? The Fed is…
May 27, 2021
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Edward Harrison
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How transitory is transitory, housing edition?
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How Transitory is Transitory?
The interplay between a central bank's forward guidance and market expectations are where the rubber hits the road on long-term interest rates. It's not…
May 26, 2021
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Edward Harrison
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How Transitory is Transitory?
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Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future
I was talking to my colleague Jack Farley about the financial news flow earlier today. (We're recording a Real Vision Daily Briefing at 4:30PM EDT). He…
May 24, 2021
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Edward Harrison
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Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future
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