The macro crystal ball: macro framing and historical antecedents

Happy June.!!

Listen, I want to start this month with a thought piece rather than a data piece. And this is going to be a pretty long post. But I think it's important because I plan to build on it.

Now, I showed you some data last week on jobless claims, a series I have been following for some 20 years. And what was clear to me was that the nature of this…