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An update on the Trump plan to get the Europe to buy US LNG and block Nord Stream 2
I think we need to follow this issue. It is a perfect intersection of energy security, foreign policy and financial issues that are very important for Europe and the US.
Fed overtightening risk now begins in earnest with yield curve at my predicted 25 basis points
The yield curve has flattened to the point where two-year yields are only 25 basis points lower than 10-year yields. I have been predicting this outcome for several months and see this as a level to worry about the Fed's ability to engineer…
Did France and Germany just commit to raising defense spending to 2% well ahead of schedule?
UPDATE 815AM EDT: I see Reuters has reported that "Trump says that NATO allies have committed to raising defense spending beyond 2 percent of GDP." This reporting validates everything I write here.
------------We have a lot of new…
The secret Trump plan to wean Europe off of Russian gas in favor of US LNG supplies
Trump is not merely a loudmouth, making enemies of America's allies. He is trying to muscle out Vladimir Putin and his Nord Stream 2 pipeline so that US oil and gas companies can benefit.
Monetary and fiscal space will be very limited in the next US downturn
Editor's note: This post was first published on Patreon on 27 June 2018.The United States governments spends money by keystroke. And though it is forced by law to sell bonds when its accounts at the Fed run low, this artificial…
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The next emerging markets crisis is now: Turkey as a canary in the coalmine
Turkish bond yields are skyrocketing as the Turkish lira plummets. The question, though, is whether Turkey is an outlier or a sign of more to come.
Update on the US jobs data
I was out when the US jobs numbers came out on Friday. But they were good. And strangely, that's particularly because the unemployment rate increased.
Currencies to own as recession takes hold
This post first appeared on Patreon on 9 Jul 2018Last week, I wrote up a macro bond play that involves three parts: currencies, spread differentials and default risk. I want to hone in on one of those three today: currencies. And here's…
Merkel called her Interior Minister’s bluff aka Germany is more stable than people think
As long as the EU remains vastly richer than countries in North and central Africa, there will be a flow of migrants to the EU. And Italy and Greece will get the lion's share of those migrants, fuelling anti-immigrant politics. With Eastern…
Playing the yield curve
Right now, we are still very much in the bull market phase. So the number of macro theses which make money are limited. US curve flattening and the prospect of Fed overtightening presents the best risk/reward.