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Handicapping the logic behind predictions for a recession by 2020
Yesterday's daily featured four views on a potential global recession and financial crisis by the end of the year 2020. Nouriel Roubini had the view I think easiest to deconstruct because he lays out ten separate trigger points that could…
Why I am more worried about Europe than the US
Is the fiscal debate political or market-driven?
The eponymous debate in the US over government spending, debt and deficits is whether the issues are fundamentally market-driven or politically-motivated. For example, recently Trump economic…
The US-Chinese trade war and a slowing global economy
1 Big Thing: Escalating trade war
In today's daily post, I want to put the US - China trade war front and center and ask whether it matters to growth.
The news, of course, is that US President Trump slapped tariffs on $200 billion worth of…
Some thoughts on unanchored inflation expectations, Fed policy and rising 10-year yields
A month ago, 10-year yields were at 2.89%. And so, we were at a level that yields had been on February 20th despite two rate hikes in the intervening period. Since that time, rates have shot up 10 basis points, with the 10-year briefly…
Lines drawn in predictions for a recession by 2020
Increasingly, prognosticators are talking about a recession in the United States by 2020. But not everyone is onboard with those predictions. Moreover, arguments vary both in terms of why a recession would take hold and in what the likely…
Politics driving fiscal space, populists winning in Europe, and the meaning of a crushing euro…
1 Big Thing: Politics are the driving force in fiscal debates
The conventional wisdom is that Donald Trump is irresponsible for running up trillion dollar deficits which will limit fiscal space in the next downturn. In a good piece on how a…
This is why I told you in March to listen to Lael Brainard. She makes the intellectual case for…
Back on March 1st, I told you to think of "Lael Brainard as the catalyst for Fed regime shift". Here's why:
Back in late 2015, she and Fed Governor Dan Tarullo expressed caution about raising interest rates. And as the Fed increased the Fed…
Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers
China’s debt problems have emerged so much more rapidly and severely this year than in the past that a growing number of analysts believe that this may be the year that China’s economy breaks. There is no question that China will have a…
The Internet: cutting out the middleman and creating platforms for regulatory arbitrage
This is today's daily post. It's going to be all about technology. To start, I want to focus in on a theme: the deflationary impact of the Internet. Since I have a lot of ideas here, I may make this into a thematic post later.
1 Big Thing:…
The situation in China as the trade war with the US beckons
On Monday, I mentioned that White House Director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow had said on CNBC that the US wants to build a “coalition of the willing” to fight China on trade. And so, the fear in China, I understand, is…