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Confirming a second global growth slowdown as Trump tries to consolidate power
The big picture: deflation is back
There was a global growth slowdown that I flagged late in 2014. And it came to the fore in 2015, derailing the US economy and pushing the Fed's rate hike timetable back. Here we are with another one. I…
The bear market in crude
Really quickly here: WTI has traded down into bear market territory today. I see it quoted at $61.38. The high was $76.90. Brent is also down to $71.81 from a high of $86.74. That's not official bear market territory yet. But it's coming…
Back to the Fed
The midterm election is over. So we can go back to worrying about the Fed!
I ended yesterday's political economy piece saying:
My sense, here, is that a divided Congress means we are in a ride it out period economically. There are no more…
How far is Trump willing to go?
Let me run something by you. I was thinking about the economic implications of the US midterm election this morning when I happened across various accounts about Donald Trump's press conference yesterday. A lot of the focus was on his…
US midterms post-mortem: A divided congress for a divided America
The US midterm elections last night saw the biggest turnout for a midterm in at least half a century because voter enthusiasm was high. But it was high because the United States is very polarized right now about the job performance of…
As we head to the mid-terms, what about the economy?
There isn't a lot of economic news out today, so let me focus today's piece a bit on the economic and social messaging ahead of the US midterm elections.
What about the economy?
I was in the car just now, listening to the radio, when a…
A quick note about the bond market
I don't have a daily post for you today. So, in lieu of a daily, I wanted to make some more general comments about interest rates that I have been making in my market commentary pieces.
The accelerated hike timetable
In February, I wrote a…
The jobs number was great, but it’s all about the Fed now
This morning, I gave you an initial reaction to the jobs number, saying:
A bad number won’t change the Fed’s forward guidance because the Fed has a tightening bias. But that bias means that a good number could tip us toward four rate hikes…
Forget about $100 oil and disregard the non-farm number too. Watch housing
No more oil black swan
Remember Al Arabiya channel’s General Manager Turki Aldakhil warning that imposing sanctions on, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter could spark global economic disaster? I wrote about it when the Jamal…
More on domestic ‘unilateralism’
Birthright citizenship
Yesterday, I wrote about what unilateralism looks like on the domestic front. And in many ways, it's similar to international unilateralism. The guiding principle is to prematurely forgo compromise and take a stance,…