• Market jitters and fake liquidity in leveraged loans and high yield

    With the US treasury yield curve flattening to almost 60 basis points between 2 and 10-year maturities, we need to ask where are the vulnerabilities in the market if this spate of good news ends. I believe we should look at high yield, leveraged loans and commercial real estate

    Market jitters and fake liquidity in leveraged loans and high yield
  • The economic acceleration in Europe underpins global growth

    Since the EU had been a growth laggard due to the European sovereign debt crisis, the pickup in growth there is encouraging. In particular, Italy deserves mention as it has lagged and is where I believe the battle for the EU’s future will be won. Some thoughts below

    The economic acceleration in Europe underpins global growth
  • Why the flattening yield curve doesn’t worry me yet

    If you look at the yield curve since the early 80s double dip recession, what you’ll notice is that inversion – where 2-year rates exceed 10-year rates – precedes every recession. Right now, we’re still 70 basis points from inversion though. So far from expecting a slowdown or a recession, I would sooner expect economic acceleration. Let me go into detail below.

    Why the flattening yield curve doesn’t worry me yet
  • First piece of data that tells you the US economy is humming

    As we await the jobs number tomorrow, we should be fairly confident that the results will show an improving employment picture, especially in the wake of a hurricane plagued report last month.

    First piece of data that tells you the US economy is humming
  • Let me tell you why I’m still worried before detailing the positive economic data

    Yesterday I promised you to “look at individual economic data points and tell you why I think they bolster the case for optimism about the economic trajectory.” But before I get into that let me tell you why I still worry about the foundation of this global recovery. And a lot of it has to do with the pace of growth and with inequality. Let’s look at the US here.

    Let me tell you why I’m still worried before detailing the positive economic data
  • Brexit was a cry of financial pain and not the influence of the old

    There has been much debate on the determinants of the vote for Brexit. This column uses newly released data from the Understanding Society study to examine the characteristics of individuals who were for and against Brexit. Unhappiness contributed to the vote to leave the EU, but this was driven by feelings about individual financial situations rather than a general dissatisfaction with life. Brexit does not appear to have been caused by the old – only those under the age of 25 were substantially pro-Remain.

    Brexit was a cry of financial pain and not the influence of the old
  • Overbought

    “I had to cover my shorts.” That’s what my friend Matt told me after the company came out with its quarterly earnings and issued upbeat projections. I asked Matt, “how long are you going to keep shorting these companies. This is like the 10th time you’ve been forced to cover.” I don’t remember anymore how Matt responded. But I do […]

    Overbought
  • Crony capitalism and redistribution

    This is a thought piece. And so it’s going to be relatively) brief since I haven’t fleshed out all of my ideas here. But I want to run something by you based on a piece Matt Klein wrote over at FT Alphaville on macro policy. Let me point to the key extract from Matt’s piece on this: Here’s the gist […]

    Crony capitalism and redistribution
  • Why the downside risks of Brexit are mounting

    While the UK economy did better than predicted in 2016 in the immediate aftermath of the referendum vote on leaving the European Union, growth has since stalled and inflation has risen. Beginning in January, I have been saying that risks from Brexit are rising. Let me reiterate that case below. Now, because this is such a contentious subject, with Britain […]

    Why the downside risks of Brexit are mounting
  • Germany’s coalition talks are sowing the seeds of the euro’s breakup

    For years now within Germany’s policy circles, there have been many who have pushed for an ‘expulsion’ or ‘voluntary exit’ mechanism for the Eurozone. I am now hearing this position advocated by FDP head Christian Lindner, a potential finance minister in the new German governing coalition. I believe this affects Italy the most and sets up an existential crisis down […]

    Germany’s coalition talks are sowing the seeds of the euro’s breakup

All Content

Water and mergers and acquisitions

Water and mergers and acquisitions

This is a follow-up on my entry water post from yesterday. The thesis here is that mergers will be a big part of the landscape as companies seek economies of scale and scope or vertically integrate to deliver water to their customers. But before I go into the corporate landscape, let me continue developing some thoughts on why water matters now.

Read more ›
Corporate tax cuts and monetary offset could mean recession

Corporate tax cuts and monetary offset could mean recession

Tax cuts in the US will accelerate the Fed’s timetable and increase the potential of curve inversion and eventual recession.

Read more ›
Market jitters and fake liquidity in leveraged loans and high yield

Market jitters and fake liquidity in leveraged loans and high yield

With the US treasury yield curve flattening to almost 60 basis points between 2 and 10-year maturities, we need to ask where are the vulnerabilities in the market if this spate of good news ends. I believe we should look at high yield, leveraged loans and commercial real estate

Read more ›
The economic acceleration in Europe underpins global growth

The economic acceleration in Europe underpins global growth

Since the EU had been a growth laggard due to the European sovereign debt crisis, the pickup in growth there is encouraging. In particular, Italy deserves mention as it has lagged and is where I believe the battle for the EU’s future will be won. Some thoughts below

Read more ›
Why the flattening yield curve doesn’t worry me yet

Why the flattening yield curve doesn’t worry me yet

If you look at the yield curve since the early 80s double dip recession, what you’ll notice is that inversion – where 2-year rates exceed 10-year rates – precedes every recession. Right now, we’re still 70 basis points from inversion though. So far from expecting a slowdown or a recession, I would sooner expect economic acceleration. Let me go into detail below.

Read more ›
No recession until at least late 2018

No recession until at least late 2018

The US economy added 261,000 jobs in October bringing the baseline unemployment rate down to 4.1%, the lowest in nearly two decades. And while this number was short of expectations, revisions to the prior two months’ data meant a net gain close to the consensus estimates. Going forward, the concern has to be that we are late in the cycle. So we need to think about how fiscal and monetary policy will develop.

Read more ›
First piece of data that tells you the US economy is humming

First piece of data that tells you the US economy is humming

As we await the jobs number tomorrow, we should be fairly confident that the results will show an improving employment picture, especially in the wake of a hurricane plagued report last month.

Read more ›
Let me tell you why I’m still worried before detailing the positive economic data

Let me tell you why I’m still worried before detailing the positive economic data

Yesterday I promised you to “look at individual economic data points and tell you why I think they bolster the case for optimism about the economic trajectory.” But before I get into that let me tell you why I still worry about the foundation of this global recovery. And a lot of it has to do with the pace of growth and with inequality. Let’s look at the US here.

Read more ›
The global economy is hitting its stride right now

The global economy is hitting its stride right now

Most of the recent economic news from developed economies has been good. European growth, in particular, seems to have accelerated. Nothing I see in the economic data causes me worry. So I am cautiously optimistic that this upturn will last at least through 2018. So let me go through the data, my outlook and my concerns.

Read more ›
Brexit was a cry of financial pain and not the influence of the old

Brexit was a cry of financial pain and not the influence of the old

There has been much debate on the determinants of the vote for Brexit. This column uses newly released data from the Understanding Society study to examine the characteristics of individuals who were for and against Brexit. Unhappiness contributed to the vote to leave the EU, but this was driven by feelings about individual financial situations rather than a general dissatisfaction with life. Brexit does not appear to have been caused by the old – only those under the age of 25 were substantially pro-Remain.

Read more ›
Overbought

Overbought

“I had to cover my shorts.” That’s what my friend Matt told me after the company came out with its quarterly earnings and issued upbeat projections. I asked Matt, “how long are you going to keep shorting these companies. This is like the 10th time you’ve been forced to cover.” I don’t remember anymore how Matt responded. But I do […]

Read more ›
The one data series you should follow to know if the US expansion is in good shape

The one data series you should follow to know if the US expansion is in good shape

Since we experienced a severe economic trauma due to the subprime financial crisis, there has been an almost reflexive disbelief in the durability this economic expansion. There are times when I would count myself amongst the disbelievers. For example, during the shale oil bust, I worried that Fed rate hikes would be the straw that broke the camel’s back. But […]

Read more ›
Crony capitalism and redistribution

Crony capitalism and redistribution

This is a thought piece. And so it’s going to be relatively) brief since I haven’t fleshed out all of my ideas here. But I want to run something by you based on a piece Matt Klein wrote over at FT Alphaville on macro policy. Let me point to the key extract from Matt’s piece on this: Here’s the gist […]

Read more ›