Credit Writedowns Pro

This is a follow-up on my entry water post from yesterday. The thesis here is that mergers will be a big part of the landscape as companies seek economies of scale and scope or vertically integrate to deliver water to their customers. But before I go into the corporate landscape, let me continue developing some thoughts on why water matters now.

Since we experienced a severe economic trauma due to the subprime financial crisis, there has been an almost reflexive disbelief in the durability this economic expansion. There are times when I would count myself amongst the disbelievers. For example, during the shale oil bust, I worried that Fed rate hikes would be the straw that broke the camel’s back. But […]

This is a thought piece. And so it’s going to be relatively) brief since I haven’t fleshed out all of my ideas here. But I want to run something by you based on a piece Matt Klein wrote over at FT Alphaville on macro policy. Let me point to the key extract from Matt’s piece on this: Here’s the gist […]

While the UK economy did better than predicted in 2016 in the immediate aftermath of the referendum vote on leaving the European Union, growth has since stalled and inflation has risen. Beginning in January, I have been saying that risks from Brexit are rising. Let me reiterate that case below. Now, because this is such a contentious subject, with Britain […]

For years now within Germany’s policy circles, there have been many who have pushed for an ‘expulsion’ or ‘voluntary exit’ mechanism for the Eurozone. I am now hearing this position advocated by FDP head Christian Lindner, a potential finance minister in the new German governing coalition. I believe this affects Italy the most and sets up an existential crisis down […]

The latest jobs number out of the US was a loss of 33,000 jobs in a hurricane-ravaged September. Despite the job losses, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%. Viewed narrowly, this number puts the Fed on hold until December. But viewed more broadly, I believe now is the time to talk about Minsky’s ‘instability of stability’ and what it […]

Irma, the devastating hurricane that hit Florida with its full force, was not as destructive as it could have been. But the impact on the economy, beginning with unemployment, has already been felt. As the Hurricane made its way toward the US mainland, damage estimates ratcheted up. But the ‘Bermuda High’ dampened the impact. Here’s how Bloomberg describes it: The […]

Three years ago, the Fed had begun tightening and all other central banks were still on easy street. Now, we are at an inflection point where other central banks are likely to tighten more than the Fed. That’s negative for the US dollar and positive for longer duration US Treasuries.

Since Donald Trump became president, his core economic agenda has been sidetracked repeatedly by so-called cultural issues. However, now the administration is stepping up its tax reform effort. Even so, other issues threaten to derail this agenda item too. Moreover, it’s not even clear we’re talking about tax reform here. Thoughts below

I am a sceptic of thinking about low unemployment as a bad thing – which is what people who think about policy in terms of the Phillips curve do. Now a study by the Philly Fed is saying that the Phillips Curve is a poor forecasting tool. Will this have any meaningful impact on policy? Some thoughts below

Recently I wrote that Donald Trump has failed to deliver any signs that tangible economic benefits are coming down the pike for his working class and blue collar base of support. It seems Trump has ‘sold out’ and is turning to corporate tax cuts at the expense of middle class tax relief. Some comments below

We are only seven months into Donald Trump’s presidency. And I think we can call it a failure. I’ll have a lot more to say on that momentarily. But I want to flag this as not being a dealbreaker for the US or global economy because people put too much emphasis on the political economy in Washington. But Donald Trump is failing.

As the Federal Reserve meets at Jackson Hole this week, I thought now would be a good time to talk about the limits of monetary policy – and why monetary policy alone cannot restore robust growth. And as I write this I want to make clear the goal of policy and the assumptions I am making.