The Downside Risk to the Mid-2019 Macroeconomy

None of the metrics I look at are screaming recession right now. In fact, for the US, some of the data is improving. Nevertheless, there is reason to be concerned about the state of the US economy in mid-2019 - so much so that my base case is for recession by the end of next year. Let me tell you what the downside risks are that I see.

Second derivative …

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