Sitemap - 2020 - The Credit Writedowns Newsletter
Musings on initial claims, the US economy and Tesla as year end draws near
Pegging market and economic trends
Contextualizing the horrible jobless claims numbers
Good claims number. Now awaiting the jobs figure
Pre-inaugural fiscal relief unlikely
Coronavirus and initial claims bogeys ahead of schedule
Europe double dips as the US expands
Double dip is now the base case for the US as well as the global economy
Rotation toward value, Covid-19 spikes and electoral disputes
Addendum on divided government
Divided government, stimulus anxiety and Covid-19
Double dip is now the base case for the global economy
The Macro Themes That Matter, Part 3, Markets Edition
The Macro Themes That Matter, Part 2, Mea Culpa Double Dip Edition
The Macro Themes That Matter, Part 1
Scalability and the K-shaped recovery
Chinese GDP, European double dip and Norway as the model
Two alternative takes on the recession and on coronavirus
Lessening credit distress and a jobless claims surge
The business cycle and credit, defaults, and bankruptcies
Sanguine about the near term but concerned about future trends
Continued high jobless claims, no stimulus and coronavirus
David Rosenberg and the corona crisis as a depression
Economic downshift sinking in?
An update on momentum stocks as a secular stagnation play
Jobless claims remain dangerously elevated
Get while the getting is good (and more on jobless claims)
Search and Simplicity: The Silver Bullets of the Internet
Worries about a retail investor-led speculative mania, part 2
The US labor market is deteriorating
The Fed, endogenous money and balance sheet constraints
Thoughts on my September and October thesis playing out
Some thoughts on US jobs numbers and market volatility
Two takeaways from today's market meltdown
Fixing the jobless claims numbers
The convergence to zero trade end, volatility edition
Portfolio implications as the convergence to zero trade ends
The policy world we live in and its implications
Growth downshift, yes. But how much?
Initial claims and the fiscal cliff update
Signals to watch as crucial fall season approaches
Initial claims and the fiscal cliff
Momentum stocks as a long duration secular stagnation play
US economic outlook to now deteriorate quickly
Recent jobs data supports muted W-shaped recovery for now
The surge in jobless claims looks to be over
More on the fiscal cliff and a double dip
Jobless claims, the fiscal cliff and a double dip
Five important macro themes on my mind today
Where are we economically right now?
Initial jobless claims rise 100,000, unadjusted claims fall 100,000
Why initial jobless claims are going to go through the roof
News suggests major economic and political challenges ahead
Political impasse over jobless claims just as they mushroom
Data show W-shaped recovery is taking hold
'Bullish' takeaways from US jobs data
News flow as European shares outperform the US
Some brief thoughts on the second coronavirus spike and financial markets
The Fed's stress tests and severely adverse outcomes
The reverse-radical and W-shaped recoveries
Re-opening, the pandemic and a potential double dip
The coronavirus pandemic is worsening
Fed asset purchases and Hyman Minsky's two price system
My thoughts on the present re-opening rally hiccup
Some thoughts on the bullish narrative
The real economy and equity market mania
Worries about a retail investor-led speculative mania
Positive sentiment, the oil price rally and re-opening
Social unrest, economic fundamentals and the liquidity-driven rally
The three crises facing the United States
Why higher US savings won’t save the pandemic-hit economy
Predicting post-coronavirus outcomes
Re-calibrating forecasts and relative value in a post-lockdown world
Policy errors during a balance sheet recession and 25% unemployment
Hope reigns supreme despite the poor economic outlook
The jobs picture, coronavirus response protocols and mental health
Handicapping economic outcomes after the third phase of recession
Sweden's economy holding up as the rest of Europe suffers
Entering the third phase of recession
My take on the three d's of depression
Gauging post-lockdown economic outcomes as the US economy contracts 4.8%
Negative sentiment, the oil price collapse and re-opening business
Bullish thoughts about Europe's recovery
Broadening my content filter on Covid-19 and the economy
Asset allocation worries and pain in the oil patch
Reality is setting in, but only slowly
Yesterday marked the end of US energy independence
The post-coronavirus view of Italian government debt
Economic outcomes from the fight to exit lockdown
The post-coronavirus corporate earnings reports have begun
Is it too late for a US lockdown and quarantine approach?
What makes a Great Depression a Depression and not a recession?
In defense of the Fed's junk bond campaign
The Fed crosses a Rubicon of credit easing by buying junk debt
How do we achieve minimal economic disruption from Covid-19?
Italy's quagmire and lingering impacts of post-lockdown social distancing
Europe begins coronavirus backside response planning
Looking forward on coronavirus, the economy and markets
Brief thoughts on the loss of 701,000 jobs in the US
Defining crisis and predicting outcomes in an environment of maximum uncertainty
The backside of the coronavirus storm
In the eye of the coronavirus storm
Europe hunkers down as US jobless claims hit record
Bringing a demand-side bazooka to a party with no supply
The premature lifting of lockdown
BREAKING: The Fed has announced unlimited QE to include many asset classes
Backside coronavirus responses after deep recession, equity rout
Coronavirus news as global recession deepens
The coronavirus effect on the real economy has arrived
Enumerating coronavirus' threats to the financial system
We are now in a financial crisis
Taking stock now that coronavirus has been officially declared a pandemic
Judging the state of the economy amid the coronavirus pandemic
How to think about Trump's coronavirus speech and likely outcomes
Social distancing, lockdown and quarantine and policy responses
Snapback rally coming as Trump targets stimulus
Financial crisis must be averted as financial panic takes hold
GDPNow at 3.1% as oil price freefall beckons liquidity crisis
The coronavirus outbreak is a health crisis
Are we seeing the makings of another financial crisis?
We've had the relief rally already. What's next?
A relief rally is not out of the question
Preparing for an L-shaped recovery - will we get a coordinated global response to the coronavirus?
Market structure vulnerabilities amidst a coronavirus pandemic
Economic outcomes from a shift to the coronavirus as a pandemic
Coronavirus now causing rapid tightening of financial conditions
Coronavirus now causing rapid tightening of financial conditions
Near-panic over the economic impact of the coronavirus
The coronavirus is crushing supply chains and is a major threat to the global economy
The nightmare scenario is now playing out for the US Democratic Party
More thoughts on the Democratic Primary and today's Zeitgeist
The downside risks from coronavirus are mounting
Sanders' Socialism vs Crony Capitalism
Millennials' openness to socialism and more on a brokered convention
A brokered Democratic convention and the faltering European economy
How the Fed aims to prevent the next financial crisis using the Standing Repo Facility
German chancellor in waiting quits, Fedspeak comments, Repo thoughts, and economic bullishness
Jobs report confirms health of US economy and gives a boost to Trump
Some thoughts on the radicalization of politics in Germany (and around the globe)
Bullish US and EU data as we wait for the US jobs numbers
Data setback for the economic bears
More on the coronavirus, tail risk and policy error
A framework for thinking about tail risk
When is individual wealth too large?
BBB fallen angels and fake ETF liquidity
My constant end of cycle worries
UK and US looking inward, withdrawing from global role
The Iran conflict and why political events aren't bigger economic drivers