Gauging post-lockdown economic outcomes as the US economy contracts 4.8%

The model

I have a bit of a problem. I am not sure how to put today's post together. What I plan to dissect is the economic outlook as we escape coronavirus lockdowns. But, economies are so complex and the outlook is so uncertain that it's hard to represent what's likely to happen on a macro level. So let me do this; I'm going to highlight several data s…