Sitemap - 2021 - The Credit Writedowns Newsletter
Risks to growth and inflation helping keep long rates down
What's your model on how real GDP grows durably?
Do inflation expectations even matter anymore?
The Death of the US Treasury Bond Vigilante
US jobs report fails to reinforce tapering narrative; bad news is good news
ADP and claims data show US employment progress
The macro crystal ball: macro framing and historical antecedents
Where were claims at this point in the last cycle?
How transitory is transitory, housing edition?
Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future
Europe: Don't call it a comeback
Buy the rumour and sell the news aka sell in May and go away
European tech is about to explode
Will the Fed(s) stay the course?
The full-on pandemic, the full re-opening, and the Exponential Age
European vaccination, Manchin, and Republican infrastructure spell European outperformance
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt
Winning the footrace against the variants and approaching the new normal
The Crypto land grab concept and technological displacement
A quick word on bond vigilantism and market mania
Crypto: a sea change in how we gain trust
The 'interregnum' of risks to the upside as yields turn down
More on inflation, the mutant wave in Canada, the stall in rates and the new normal
The inflation bogeyman and the Fed reaction function
Context for my bullish outlook in the US
Bullish news on the US jobs front
Some reasonably bullish thoughts on the fourth US wave
Jobless claims under pre-pandemic peak for first time
European coronavirus update and its implications
Covid-19 waves, EM canaries, and large cap tech optionality
On the Fed's playing chicken with the bond vigilantes
Short-covering in Treasuries and a third wave in Europe
The return of the reverse radical recovery
The US economy firing on all cylinders? Hardly
Some forward-looking views on the economy and bonds
When will central banks lose control of bond markets?
Explaining my shift in tone briefly
Thinking about the blowoff top
Vaccine hopium or light at the end of the tunnel?
A reckoning in the EU and more on US yield curve steepening
Shades of 2018 as steepening yield curve great for banks, not tech
Bullish economic thoughts and the three yield curve outcomes
Weak jobs data highlight the economic impact of pandemic
Jobless claims show US coast is clear except for mutations
Epidemiological tail risk in an era of missing price signals
How to think about the GameStop saga
The pandemic, gamma squeezes and intergenerational conflict
Three yield curve outcomes and grey swans
The reflation trade and three yield curve outcomes
Jump in initial claims to 965,000
Some thoughts on this latest wave of coronavirus
Job losses may be the norm for a few months