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Apr 9, 2020Liked by Edward Harrison

Personally don't see any way out of this that isn't progressive herd immunity. Governments doing their best to flatten the curve between loosenings of the lock down. That's not good for those in high risk groups in the short term because they'll have to either voluntarily weigh up the risks of how they approach loosening periods or be forced to.

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The problem with 'herd immunity' with a lethal disease is the number of people who dies will be horrific before we get there unless you have a containment strategy as you get there. I think it's unlikely from a political perspective that we can develop herd immunity without containment strategies and economic disruption. At a minimum, you will see people's behavior change. And I think that change is likely to alter and/or depress consumption. So, while her immunity is the eventual goal, I think we get there via some kind of containment strategy. And the effectiveness of that strategy will determine the level of disruption.

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Apr 9, 2020Liked by Edward Harrison

Firstly a caveat, we are in a crisis, crisis provoke strong emotions which can interfere with clear thinking, that said..

Yes agree, how this is managed and how people respond to that management is crucial. A testing framework will play a big part in that. We all have elderly relative or know people with (or we actually have) chronic disorders that make this virus potentially lethal. I still don't see how we get away from a managed, intermittent lock down approach to flattening the curve according to our respective health service's ICU's can cope. The ultimate aim being herd immunity.

I also don't see things getting back to "normal". And I mean that seriously, I don't see how my life won't be changed by this in meaningful ways, as will most peoples. I'm not sure I'm ready for it, but we will all have to be. That means increased flexibility, lowered expectations, a more meaningful appreciation for what really matters.

On the negative side I've mentioned increased government power, on the plus side it's given a step change in incentives to remote and flexible working, to remote medicine, an appreciation that government fiscal policy is a *choice* circumscribed only by it's effects on currency value. I think it will lead to greater appreciation of economic complexity, resilience and slack, and a move away from globalised "optimisation" to national solidarity.

Finally I hope it leads to an appreciation that in this time of crisis the people we are all relying on are our lowest paid, I doubt it will but one can but hope.

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Apr 9, 2020Liked by Edward Harrison

As an aside this crisis also presents a incentive and excuse for a massive increase in government surveillance and control - they will jump at it.

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