Well, given how screwed up the claims numbers apparently are, it's kind of hard to really know where that trend is going. The continuing claims number mostly aligns with the employment picture, but again, because the UE rate is from the household survey, guessing on that is not easy. With employment 10mil under the peak pre-covid, the 7% UE rate is way too low, but that is simply due to the sharp drop in participation. Without that, we'd be around 10% UE. It is likely now that more schools are going virtual, and more people are avoiding being in public, that participation has dropped again, so we might see the jobless rate fall even with no net job gains or a slight decline. 2020 is the year of messed up data (just wait til we have a look at the Census next year!)

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