Predicting the political economy for the 2020 US presidential election

In recent months, I have mostly written about short-to-medium term outlooks. Part of that is because making medium-to-long-term predictions is hard. But I just saw three tweets on the political economy of 2018, each making a case for how to view the likely political backdrop for 2020's presidential election in the US. So, I want to bring those three tog…