I wasn't able to get a daily off yesterday nor will I be able to a full-fledged one today. But I will post today. Just a reminder: next week, I am on holiday. And so I don't know how much writing I will do, if any. Let me start today more…
Despite a 43-year low in UK unemployment rates, wage earners are losing ground. As the Bank of England decides how to respond, we can see signs of a global tightening in monetary policy.
Stories on job losses on UK high streets, wage battles in Britain and bubbles in crypto and startup tech companies
Global equities have rallied. Of course, stock prices are not the end all and be all, but it stands in stark contrast to the cries that the sky is falling.
The biggest positive takeaway is that trend growth in non-farm payrolls is heading up. For me, it suggests that the economy has legs.
As good as the headline unemployment rate appears to be, we should worry that wage growth for the majority of Americans remains weak. The Federal Reserve, acting on the headline rate, will likely make a significant policy error and raise…
Lingering concerns about long-term unemployment notwithstanding, inflation has taken center stage. The most recent jobs report, while weak, does little to diminish the Fed's view that rates need to move higher.
There is no indication that average hourly earnings are moving sustainably higher. And therefore, there is no indication that average hourly earnings have any inflationary consequences.