Post Tagged with: "United States"

The one data series you should follow to know if the US expansion is in good shape

The one data series you should follow to know if the US expansion is in good shape

Since we experienced a severe economic trauma due to the subprime financial crisis, there has been an almost reflexive disbelief in the durability this economic expansion. There are times when I would count myself amongst the disbelievers. For example, during the shale oil bust, I worried that Fed rate hikes would be the straw that broke the camel’s back. But […]

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Crony capitalism and redistribution

Crony capitalism and redistribution

This is a thought piece. And so it’s going to be relatively) brief since I haven’t fleshed out all of my ideas here. But I want to run something by you based on a piece Matt Klein wrote over at FT Alphaville on macro policy. Let me point to the key extract from Matt’s piece on this: Here’s the gist […]

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Hurricane Irma, jobless claims and economic growth

Irma, the devastating hurricane that hit Florida with its full force, was not as destructive as it could have been. But the impact on the economy, beginning with unemployment, has already been felt. As the Hurricane made its way toward the US mainland, damage estimates ratcheted up. But the ‘Bermuda High’ dampened the impact. Here’s how Bloomberg describes it: The […]

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Policy divergence revisited

Policy divergence revisited

Three years ago, the Fed had begun tightening and all other central banks were still on easy street. Now, we are at an inflection point where other central banks are likely to tighten more than the Fed. That’s negative for the US dollar and positive for longer duration US Treasuries.

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Quick thoughts on the failure of Fed-engineered unemployment

I am a sceptic of thinking about low unemployment as a bad thing – which is what people who think about policy in terms of the Phillips curve do. Now a study by the Philly Fed is saying that the Phillips Curve is a poor forecasting tool. Will this have any meaningful impact on policy? Some thoughts below

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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to supporters as he takes the stage for a campaign event in Dallas, Monday, Sept. 14, 2015. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

On the coming failure of Trump’s tax plan

Recently I wrote that Donald Trump has failed to deliver any signs that tangible economic benefits are coming down the pike for his working class and blue collar base of support. It seems Trump has ‘sold out’ and is turning to corporate tax cuts at the expense of middle class tax relief. Some comments below

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The failure of the Trump presidency

We are only seven months into Donald Trump’s presidency. And I think we can call it a failure. I’ll have a lot more to say on that momentarily. But I want to flag this as not being a dealbreaker for the US or global economy because people put too much emphasis on the political economy in Washington. But Donald Trump is failing.

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The limits of monetary policy in today’s fiat currency world

The limits of monetary policy in today’s fiat currency world

As the Federal Reserve meets at Jackson Hole this week, I thought now would be a good time to talk about the limits of monetary policy – and why monetary policy alone cannot restore robust growth. And as I write this I want to make clear the goal of policy and the assumptions I am making.

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Understanding what a neutral macro-economic policy looks like

This is going to be a quick follow-on to the last post on monetary policy as the only game in town. I feel like the obvious question that post doesn’t answer is this one: what other policy tools we should use? And I want to tee up that question with this post.

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Some thoughts on full employment and this asset-based economic recovery

Some thoughts on full employment and this asset-based economic recovery

I see that Dartmouth economics professor Danny Blanchflower is talking about slack in the US labour market because he believes the Fed is premature in assessing its full employment mandate as fulfilled. I have a few thoughts on this issue I want to flesh out below and the crux of my narrative revolves around the over-dependence on monetary policy as a policy lever.

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How the Fed handles financial stability is key to avoiding a crisis

How the Fed handles financial stability is key to avoiding a crisis

I’ve got two objectives here. One is to talk about the Fed and the other is to discuss the evolution of the US economy. Most of what I want to say is upbeat, both on the Fed and the economy. And I’ll lead with that. I do have some doubts about the long-term though – and I want to give […]

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Baumol’s cost disease, aging societies and inflation expectations

Quick hit here. I have been banging on about lowflation, repeatedly suggesting it is here to stay. The Fed, on the other hand begs to differ and is pre-emptively normalizing rates, as a result. No matter how you look at this, there’s a rub though: We all consume different products, so we each experience a different individual inflation rate. Even […]

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