Post Tagged with: "United States"

You should be concerned about falling car prices and Ally’s profit warning

Yesterday, Ally Financial warned that profits would underperform expectations. Now, they dd not say that profits would fall or that they were taking credit writedowns. Neverthless, the warning is an important marker and should be of grave concern. Here’s why.

Read more ›
How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits

How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits

I am going to start commenting on the weekly jobless claims figure more actively because I like it as a real-time indicator. For me, it is the best real-time data point we have on how the employment picture intersects with consumption demand and GDP because it is released every week.

Read more ›
The Fed will continue to raises rates, even amid uneven economic data

The Fed will continue to raises rates, even amid uneven economic data

Today the Federal Reserve raised the base USFed Funds interest rate a quarter percentage point to the range between 0.75% and 1.00%. There was only one dissent from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. And because this move was anticipated by everyone, the real question now goes to what comes next.

Read more ›
US credit growth is decelerating across a variety of areas

US credit growth is decelerating across a variety of areas

This week all eyes will be on the Fed because of its expected interest rate hike and the messaging that will accompany its policy decision. But credit markets should also be focused elsewhere, because credit growth has been decelerating across a wide array of markets for months now. And this trend has not let up in recent months.

Read more ›

US jobs numbers come in high enough to prompt Fed rate hike

The BLS released the latest employment numbers for the US, the last piece of major economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on whether to raise interest rates. The numbers were good enough, and now a rate hike is all but certain.

Read more ›
Tomorrow’s jobs number would have to terrible to prevent a Fed hike

Tomorrow’s jobs number would have to terrible to prevent a Fed hike

Tomorrow, the BLS will release the February jobs numbers for the US economy. This is the last piece of major US economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on US monetary policy. All indications are that the number will be good. The ADP employment report released yesterday showed 298,000 private sector jobs added to the economy, the best showing in some 11 years. And January’s report showed non-farm payrolls rising by 227,000.

Read more ›

The US trade deficit is at a five-year high

This morning data from the US Commerce Department showed the US trade deficit in January at its highest level since March 2012. The numbers were not unexpected as the $48.5 billion deficit was bang on economist estimates.

Read more ›

The coming Fed hike and the problems with its communication

Now the market are putting the odds of a hike next week at 96%, a virtual certainty. But the very fact that Yellen and her compatriots commented on the likelihood of a rate hike at a specific meeting has been the subject of consternation.

Read more ›

Financial conditions have eased enough to get the Fed to hike in March

For years, many Fed watchers have claimed that the Federal Reserve has a secret third mandate beyond inflation and full employment. And this past February 21st, for the first time a Fed President said directly that, indeed, the Fed does have a third mandate: financial stability.

Read more ›
The yield curve is still flatter than at anytime since the last recession

The yield curve is still flatter than at anytime since the last recession

If you look at the difference in yield between 2 and 10-year treasuries, the numbers in the last year are the lowest since 2008, when the US economy was in a recession.

Read more ›
Jobless claims are at their lowest level in 44 years

Jobless claims are at their lowest level in 44 years

It’s not the actual level of jobless claims that matters. It’s the change from one year to the next, due to the income shock associated with job losses.

Read more ›
Personal income data shows the US economy on track

Personal income data shows the US economy on track

Yesterday’s release of the Personal Income and Outlays data showed personal income increasing 0.4% in January, ahead of expectations. The numbers demonstrate that the US economy continues to expand at a solid if unspectacular pace. The decline in personal consumption growth is the challenge for continued growth in the US economy with the Fed set to hike rates.

Read more ›