Post Tagged with: "United States"

Trump is just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster, NAFTA edition

Trump is just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster, NAFTA edition

This morning, the Trump Administration called the leaders of Canada and Mexico to tell them that he “agreed not to terminate NAFTA at this time,” showing, yet again, that Donald Trump is much less audacious a President than some expected. The question is why. About two months ago, I surmised that despite all his hot rhetoric, Trump’s bark was worse […]

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What will policy normalization mean for credit markets (wonkish)

What will policy normalization mean for credit markets (wonkish)

Given recent hawkish Fed statements and the potential for even more than three hikes, all of this is bullish for longer-duration Treasuries but much less so for auto ABS, high yield and emerging markets.

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Canada’s soft lumber and dairy are easy targets for Trump’s ‘America First’ strategy

Canada’s soft lumber and dairy are easy targets for Trump’s ‘America First’ strategy

Donald Trump is a very media-centric public figure. And because the chatter in DC now is of Trump as a legislative failure during his first hundred days in office, Trump needs a win – and Canada is an easy target. Here’s why.

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Jobless claims and ADP data positive ahead of jobs report

Jobless claims and ADP data positive ahead of jobs report

The consensus for the March jobs report is for an addition of 178,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%. Other data show the risk is to the upside here.

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Why the Fed minutes show the FOMC moving toward Bullard and balance sheet shrinkage

Why the Fed minutes show the FOMC moving toward Bullard and balance sheet shrinkage

What about running down the balance sheet — reverse QE if you will? I think this is where the Fed minutes offered some new thinking.

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The latest poor numbers coming out of the auto sector

US auto sales have been down persistently on a year-over-year basis during the past several months. March was no different, according to figures released today.

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Quick thought on how jobless claims matter

I have heard some people dismiss jobless claims as a data series for two distinct reasons that I want to flag given my view that claims data matter.

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The US economy is doing OK right now

The US economy is doing OK right now

The composite picture I am getting shows the US economy still in that 2%ish channel it has been in for some time. This is lower than certainly President Trump wants and it is also lower than growth levels at cyclical peaks in the past. But it is still far from recession.

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Subprime auto delinquency rate at highest level since financial crisis

Subprime auto delinquency rate at highest level since financial crisis

Increased delinquencies in the auto sector will spell trouble given the high LTVs of loans and lower credit scores of borrowers. And I am troubled by the OCC’s depiction of the commercial real estate sector; we could see heavy loan losses there in the next downturn.

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Jobless claims up somewhat to 258,000 in week to 18 March 2017

Overall, the figures tell us the US employment picture is the best it has been since the Great Recession.

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You should be concerned about falling car prices and Ally’s profit warning

Yesterday, Ally Financial warned that profits would underperform expectations. Now, they dd not say that profits would fall or that they were taking credit writedowns. Neverthless, the warning is an important marker and should be of grave concern. Here’s why.

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How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits

How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits

I am going to start commenting on the weekly jobless claims figure more actively because I like it as a real-time indicator. For me, it is the best real-time data point we have on how the employment picture intersects with consumption demand and GDP because it is released every week.

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