Post Tagged with: "trade"

All politics are local: understanding Trump’s threats and misunderstanding Merkel’s disappointment

All politics are local: understanding Trump’s threats and misunderstanding Merkel’s disappointment

What Angela Merkel was doing this past weekend when she spoke of the need for Europe to “take our fate into our own hands” was using an international issue for domestic purposes.

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Trump is just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster, NAFTA edition

Trump is just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster, NAFTA edition

This morning, the Trump Administration called the leaders of Canada and Mexico to tell them that he “agreed not to terminate NAFTA at this time,” showing, yet again, that Donald Trump is much less audacious a President than some expected. The question is why. About two months ago, I surmised that despite all his hot rhetoric, Trump’s bark was worse […]

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Canada’s soft lumber and dairy are easy targets for Trump’s ‘America First’ strategy

Canada’s soft lumber and dairy are easy targets for Trump’s ‘America First’ strategy

Donald Trump is a very media-centric public figure. And because the chatter in DC now is of Trump as a legislative failure during his first hundred days in office, Trump needs a win – and Canada is an easy target. Here’s why.

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The US trade deficit is at a five-year high

This morning data from the US Commerce Department showed the US trade deficit in January at its highest level since March 2012. The numbers were not unexpected as the $48.5 billion deficit was bang on economist estimates.

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This is the biggest takeaway from the US GDP report

The GDP report today showed middling growth of an annualized 1.9% in the US in the last quarter of 2016. That’s not gangbusters, but it’s not bad either. The thing to look at is consumption, because that shows the consumer chugging along. While this revision showed the overall level of GDP growth unchanged, the consumption number was revised way up to 3.0%.

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Underconsumption and the end of excess demand

Yesterday’s post on the failure of Japan’s monetary policy experiment drew some favourable commentary from a prominent macroeconomist that I want to run by you. The gist of his insight is that we have long been living in an age of an excess supply which is only now being made plain. Let me run the tenor of his comments by you and make some additional ones of my own.

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What will Trump say about Chinese manipulation at the SOTU address?

What will Trump say about Chinese manipulation at the SOTU address?

Tonight US President Donald Trump is due to give his first state of the union address. From a foreign policy perspective, the big item on the table is Russia. But from an economic perspective, the country we meed to be thinking about is China. Here’s why.

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Two things you should know about Germany’s budget surplus

Two things you should know about Germany’s budget surplus

You probably heard that Germany recorded its third consecutive year of government budget surpluses. This year it was the highest full year surplus since German reunification – 24 billion euros. A lot of the commentary on this will stress whether it’s a good thing or a bad thing that Germany has surpluses. Forget all of that. There are two other things you need to know.

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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to supporters as he takes the stage for a campaign event in Dallas, Monday, Sept. 14, 2015. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

If Donald Trump remains a cultural warrior, he will fail

Early on in President Trump’s new administration, too much of his energy is being placed on divisive ‘cultural’ issues and not enough attention is being paid to economic policies. To the degree Trump has turned to the economy, much of his policy has been focused on issues that will not yield long-term economic benefits but contain considerable risk, like trade with Mexico and China. And so, while Donald Trump is only a few weeks into his presidency, I think we can begin to take stock of what his presidency will mean for the US economy.

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Trump is dead wrong on Germany. It won’t matter though

Trump is dead wrong on Germany. It won’t matter though

The FT is reporting that US President Donald Trump sees Germany as a ‘currency manipulator’ of sorts, a view bound to have negative consequences on bilateral relations. What’s more, according to the Financial Times, Trump’s top trade advisor, Peter Navarro, has accused Germany of using a “grossly undervalued” euro to “exploit” the United States as well as Germany’s own EU monetary union partners. This makes three countries in Trump’s sights: China, Mexico and, now, Germany.

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Why Canada is the country to watch on Trump’s trade policy

Why Canada is the country to watch on Trump’s trade policy

If you want to know whwere Trump is headed on trade, don’t look at China or Mexico. Don’t even look at the UK. Canada is the country to watch for a number of reasons. First of all, Canada has an existing deal with the US and Mexico under NAFTA. That matters in terms of understanding where Trump is headed on trade. Moreover, Canada is also the 2nd largest trading partner for the US behind the European Union. Finally, the fact that Canada is finishing off its EU trade deal just as the UK is getting ready to exit puts it in a unique position in reconfiguring world trade alliances – wth an Anglo-American group involving Canada a potential outcome.

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A Q&A With Prime Economics’ Jeremy Smith on Brexit, Immigration and Democracy

A Q&A With Prime Economics’ Jeremy Smith on Brexit, Immigration and Democracy

On Monday, UK Prime Minister Theresa unveiled her vision for Britain’s exit from the European Union. The Prime Minister couched her outlook in positive terms, speaking of Britain leaving the EU but remaining in Europe. She spoke of EU member states as friends and partners. And she insisted that Britain would prosper after Brexit is achieved. I have written about what the key takeaways from her speech were. But to get a better sense of how realistic her vision is in political and economic terms, I also asked Prime Economics Co-Director Jeremy Smith for his take.

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