Post Tagged with: "retail sales"

You should be concerned about falling car prices and Ally’s profit warning

Yesterday, Ally Financial warned that profits would underperform expectations. Now, they dd not say that profits would fall or that they were taking credit writedowns. Neverthless, the warning is an important marker and should be of grave concern. Here’s why.

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Why I am now officially on recession watch

Why I am now officially on recession watch

The recent data coming out of the US has been almost unrelentingly negative outside of the recent jobs reports. The Atlanta Fed GDP now report was already down to 0.7% for Q4 when poor output and retail sales data came out. I expect the GDPNow forecast to fall even lower. And given the signal that the change in non-farm payrolls is sending and the difficult comps for weekly jobless claims, I believe we are now at stall speed in the US economy, putting me on recession watch. I have a number of data points to review here. So let’s get to it straight away.

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US Economy: Q1 as a mid-cycle pause

US Economy: Q1 as a mid-cycle pause

I have mentioned 1994 as a benign comparison for the US economy of 2015 as opposed to the 1937 comparison Ray Dalio made recently. Having looked at reasonable worst case scenarios with 1997 Japan as a model, I want to look at upside scenarios with 194 as a model. I am not forecasting an outcome here. Rather, I am trying to tease out reasonable upside scenarios for the US economy.

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The oil glut, Black Friday retail and falling yields

The oil glut, Black Friday retail and falling yields

With Black Friday behind us, it’s a pretty good time to do a check of market currents and what they mean. And despite my generally optimistic view of the US near-term economic landscape, a lot of what I am seeing now points to continued disinflationary pressure and global consumption weaknesses. A few comments below

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Thoughts on Japan’s new recession

Thoughts on Japan’s new recession

Last night, Japan’s GDP figures for Q3 came in much lower than expected. GDP fell an annualized 1.6% versus expectations for an annualized increase of 2.2%. This is as large a miss as you will see, and it calls into question the economic program administered by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan. I have not been optimistic about Japan for some time. However, I think the numbers overstate the decline and have some further macro thoughts below.

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Detailed analysis and thoughts on the Alibaba IPO

Detailed analysis and thoughts on the Alibaba IPO

Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce company, is going public via an initial public offering underwritten by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Credit Suisse. Alibaba was founded 15 years ago in 1999 in a one-room apartment in Hangzhou. It is now controlled by a 28-member partnership and proclaims that it  will build a legacy which will last “at least 102 […]

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Economic and market themes: 2014-03-14

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-14

US data have been better

European periphery market access continues to improve

Dollar weakness may be China-related

Gold continues to get safe haven bid

China’s slowing more likely to be abrupt

Ukraine has become a military issue; contagion will increase

A full-blown emerging markets crisis is now likely

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Latest data confirm China slowdown

Latest data confirm China slowdown

As a confirmation of a significant downward adjustment to China’s growth, a battery of economic reports yesterday morning all came in materially below expectations.

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Green shoots in the US?

Green shoots in the US?

By Marc Chandler US retail sales rose 0.3% in February, a little more than expected. The news was blunted by sharp downward revisions to the January series, leaving the level of retail sales lower and pointing to somewhat less personal consumption to drive GDP here in Q1. The take away is that as the weather returns to a greater semblance […]

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Canada’s dreadful December retail sales report

Canada reported dreadful December retail sales and somewhat stronger than expected price pressures in January. The main take away is that a more dovish line from the central bank when it meets on March 5 is likely avoided.

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Economic and market themes: 2014-02-14

Economic and market themes: 2014-02-14

Themes for today:

Commodities: soybean prices could fall due to increased supply. This would be troublesome for Argentina.
Emerging markets: Of the fragile five, India is looking better, Brazil is still a big concern.
Developed Markets: House price inflation makes France, the UK, Australia and Canada vulnerable to real economy shocks.
US: Consumers are only supporting 1-2% growth. Q1 will be weak. Inventory builds are still the big story.

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Retail sales and jobless claims

Retail sales and jobless claims

Again, the income to support sales just doesn’t seem to be there, as the sub 3% federal deficit doesn’t seem to have been providing the spending needed to offset the demand leakages (unspent income). And squinting at the jobless claims chart, if anything, it seems to have bottomed and be nudging irregularly higher.

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