Post Tagged with: "recession"

Why I’m on US recession watch despite 2% growth

Why I’m on US recession watch despite 2% growth

As I start this post, I am naming it “Why I’m on US recession watch despite 2% growth”. I don’t know if that name will stick when I publish this piece; nonetheless, that is the theme I am trying to get across. When I look at the economic data, it shows a near-term in the 2% growth range – stall speed or slightly below. But when I look at the same data for medium-term clues, I still see reasons to be concerned, and, therefore, I continue to be on recession watch. Finally, I am not at all sure the Fed sees the picture as I do. December was a policy mistake. And I can’t rule out others going forward.

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The Fed rate hike and the potential for US recession

The Fed rate hike and the potential for US recession

I am uneasy about where we are in the economic and credit cycle and the accuracy of the Fed’s forward guidance. I think we are above stall speed now. But I also think global policy divergence, slowing earnings growth and poor capex numbers could combine to bring on recession in 2016.

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The Latvian financial crisis

The Latvian financial crisis

In the 2008-9 crisis, Latvia suffered more than any other country despite its extensive bank reforms after the 1995 crisis. Yet only one of its banks failed (Parex): the rest were bailed out by their foreign owners. So the question is, if Latvia’s banks were actually in better shape than those in other countries, why did Latvia suffer the worst recession in the world? To be continued……

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The disaster in Europe versus data in the US (plus China and Argentina)

The disaster in Europe versus data in the US (plus China and Argentina)

Despite the title, this is not a mono-themed post but more of a highlight of recent news and data and their importance in interpreting the direction of the economy and potential effect on markets. I do want to concentrate on European and US data but I also have some data points from elsewhere. Let’s start with Europe. Europe needs a […]

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2

Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2

Today is the time to update you on how my 2014 surprises are faring and why. Just to remind you, the surprise list is based on Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has been conducting for the last thirty years. Surprises are events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which I believe have a more […]

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Canadian housing, Russian economy, Twitter bubble, and bogus tax proposals

Canadian housing, Russian economy, Twitter bubble, and bogus tax proposals

The Canadian housing market is providing a pro-cyclical boost
Russia is now in a recession
Twitter’s share collapse is emblematic of broader trends
Corporations pay tax for a reason

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Economic and market themes: 2014-03-28

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-28

The West has accepted Crimea’s annexation and will likely only increase sanctions if Russia goes further The Ukraine – IMF deal will put the Ukrainian economy through the wringer Russia’s economy is going to tank due to capital flight Brazil’s economy is in jeopardy of recession The US is doing ok but not great as data have improved The Fed’s […]

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Part 1

Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Part 1

Brazil goes into a recession.
Spanish GDP growth rebounds and outstrips German GDP growth.
Gold rebounds to beyond $1600 an ounce.
US GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 is below 2%.
10-year US Treasury yields fall below 2.25%.
Abenomics ‘fails’ as Japanese GDP growth slips below 0.5%.

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What happens to banks’ balance sheets during a downturn?

What happens to banks’ balance sheets during a downturn?

Credit underwriters pride themselves in their ability to cut lending when they sense that economic fundamentals have changed for the worse. For example one often hears bankers talking about passing on deals in 2007 because of “not liking the fundamentals” or “the markets looked stretched”. But historical data suggests otherwise.

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Source: Reuters

Today’s European periphery data points are bleak

Despite all the talk of recovery in Europe, the data suggest that the improvement in Europe is uneven at best now. The core has moved into a cyclical upturn but a lot of work remains in places like Italy and Greece. Today’s data points underscore this point.

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Spain: The recession may be ending but the crisis continues

Spain: The recession may be ending but the crisis continues

What follows is an interview I did over the summer with the Madrid based publication The Local.

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Why I am relatively upbeat about Europe

Why I am relatively upbeat about Europe

I continue to anticipate a recovery in Europe in the second half of this year. The manufacturing PMI data that were released this morning suggest we could be in recovery before the end of the quarter. This makes me relatively upbeat about the medium-term. However, problems remain.

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