The yield curve has flattened to the point where two-year yields are only 25 basis points lower than 10-year yields. I have been predicting this outcome for several months and see this as a level to worry about the Fed's ability to engineer…
Note: This post first appeared on Patreon on 2 Jul 2018I saw a Twitter exchange this morning that reminded me that the Fed is facing a political crisis due to its quantitative easing program. And I think this will limit the Fed's…
Increasing the pace of quantitative tightening in lieu of raising rates would give the Fed the opportunity to test what impact this has on the slope of the yield curve.
I have talked a decent bit about the jobs report in my last two posts here. So I want to say more about what the information in that report says to Fed members, given recent Fed guidance and speeches. I am going to lean heavily on comments…
The US jobs number just came out and the figures were quite good. Two-year yields spiked on the news.
I continue to believe that the bond bear market thesis is flawed. Money managers following it will lose a lot of money.
The lower the headline unemployment rate number goes, the more likely the Fed is to guide to two rate hikes in 2018.