Post Tagged with: "jobs"

Why the March 2017 jobs report won’t change the Fed’s strategy

Why the March 2017 jobs report won’t change the Fed’s strategy

The 98,000 jobs added to payrolls in the US in March were well below the consensus estimate of 178,000, especially when you consider downward revisions to January and February totalled 38,000. I don’t believe this matters for the Fed though; policy tightening will continue apace.

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Jobless claims and ADP data positive ahead of jobs report

Jobless claims and ADP data positive ahead of jobs report

The consensus for the March jobs report is for an addition of 178,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%. Other data show the risk is to the upside here.

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Quick thought on how jobless claims matter

I have heard some people dismiss jobless claims as a data series for two distinct reasons that I want to flag given my view that claims data matter.

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The US economy is doing OK right now

The US economy is doing OK right now

The composite picture I am getting shows the US economy still in that 2%ish channel it has been in for some time. This is lower than certainly President Trump wants and it is also lower than growth levels at cyclical peaks in the past. But it is still far from recession.

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Jobless claims up somewhat to 258,000 in week to 18 March 2017

Overall, the figures tell us the US employment picture is the best it has been since the Great Recession.

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How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits

How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits

I am going to start commenting on the weekly jobless claims figure more actively because I like it as a real-time indicator. For me, it is the best real-time data point we have on how the employment picture intersects with consumption demand and GDP because it is released every week.

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US jobs numbers come in high enough to prompt Fed rate hike

The BLS released the latest employment numbers for the US, the last piece of major economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on whether to raise interest rates. The numbers were good enough, and now a rate hike is all but certain.

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Tomorrow’s jobs number would have to terrible to prevent a Fed hike

Tomorrow’s jobs number would have to terrible to prevent a Fed hike

Tomorrow, the BLS will release the February jobs numbers for the US economy. This is the last piece of major US economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on US monetary policy. All indications are that the number will be good. The ADP employment report released yesterday showed 298,000 private sector jobs added to the economy, the best showing in some 11 years. And January’s report showed non-farm payrolls rising by 227,000.

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Jobless claims are at their lowest level in 44 years

Jobless claims are at their lowest level in 44 years

It’s not the actual level of jobless claims that matters. It’s the change from one year to the next, due to the income shock associated with job losses.

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Proof that the global economy is re-accelerating

Proof that the global economy is re-accelerating

In February, the rate of growth of Italy’s manufacturing sector showed the fastest increase in output and new orders since December 2015. Employment growth was the highest since late 2000.

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In defense of the Fed’s rate hike campaign

Thought I have been on recession watch for nearly all of 2016, I want to write this post as a reminder that there are upside scenarios for the US and global economy. The Federal Reserve looked forward and felt it could tighten into a slowing economy and rising dollar without the economy falling into recession. And so far, they have proved correct. Thinking of this business cycle in comparison to the last two, let me outline my thinking on what are upside scenarios here.

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Donald Trump and the return of Rockefeller Republicanism

With the Republicans taking both houses of Congress as well as the Presidency, the potential for Trump to reshape the party in his image is immense. The question now regarding the Trump economic platform is how much he will bend to the will of the Republican establishment and how much will Trump remain focused on his blue-collar and middle class base of support.

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