Post Tagged with: "jobs"

Jobless claims data show no disruption yet; Apple touts investment in jobs

Jobless claims data show no disruption yet; Apple touts investment in jobs

Initial claims for unemployment insurance of 220,000 in the week ending January 13 underscore the strength of the US job market. With the 4-week moving average decreasing to 244,500, there is no sign on the horizon of disruption to jobs.

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Some thoughts on the Walmart minimum pay increase

Some thoughts on the Walmart minimum pay increase

Walmarts plan to raise the minimum pay for some employees to $11 an hour is big news. I also think this is good news for Trump and the Republicans as well as for wage rates in the US.

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Job openings may have peaked in the US

Job openings may have peaked in the US

While the month-to-month numbers were ordinary, the trend for the past few months is down.

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Demographics are adding to lower US growth

Demographics are adding to lower US growth

When you look at what the US has gone through over the last decade, in terms of the job market, what stands out is the total decimation of jobs during the Great Financial Crisis. But something else stands out too — and that’s demographics.

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Growth in non-farm payrolls peaks mid-cycle

Growth in non-farm payrolls peaks mid-cycle

You don’t get the same level of job growth after eight years of an economic upturn as you do after one. And this is borne out by the statistics.

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Jobs report adds no new information about economy; Fed still on track for 3 hikes in 2018

Jobs report adds no new information about economy; Fed still on track for 3 hikes in 2018

The US Labor Department released a very ho-hum jobs report this morning, showing the unemployment rate in line with expectations at 4.1%, but with the economy only adding 148,000, below the 190,000 expected. Overall, the report provided no new information on the pace of wage growth or the tightness of the labor market and can largely be discounted.

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Wages might finally be beginning to rise

Wages might finally be beginning to rise

The Wall Street Journal has a piece out about wage rates in the tightest urban markets like Minneapolis. And what they found is that wages rates in these markets is beginning to rise. That doesn’t mean inflation will rise. However, it does put more pressure on the Fed.

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ADP and jobless claims show a tightening job market

ADP and jobless claims show a tightening job market

The jobless claims report released this morning shows a labor market that is supportive of continued growth. Combined with a much better than expected 250,000 increase in private payrolls in the ADP report, the claims data give us every reason to be optimistic about tomorrows jobs report.

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Eurozone winners and losers

Eurozone winners and losers

The eurozone is fully recovered from the sovereign debt crisis. And that’s been true since early in 2016. But it’s only now that big growth is kicking into high gear as the synchronized global upturn takes hold. But who are the winners and who are the losers here?

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Jobless claims data positive, no US slowdown evident

Jobless claims data positive, no US slowdown evident

In the week ending December 23, initial jobless claims were just 245,000, keeping the average below 240,000 yet again. With claims still below year ago levels, there are no signs in the data that a US slowdown is coming. As a result, we may see two more quarters of growth over 3%, keeping the Fed on track for rate rises despite the flattening US yield curve.

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Yellen: The relationship between the slope of the yield curve and the business cycle may have changed

Yellen: The relationship between the slope of the yield curve and the business cycle may have changed

The biggest takeaway from Chair Yellen’s press conference was her belief that there is “reason to think the relationship between the slope of the yield curve and the business cycle may have changed.” To me, this suggests that some Fed officials will be inclined to disregard a flattening yield curve as a market signal. Some thoughts below

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No recession until at least late 2018

No recession until at least late 2018

The US economy added 261,000 jobs in October bringing the baseline unemployment rate down to 4.1%, the lowest in nearly two decades. And while this number was short of expectations, revisions to the prior two months’ data meant a net gain close to the consensus estimates. Going forward, the concern has to be that we are late in the cycle. So we need to think about how fiscal and monetary policy will develop.

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