Post Tagged with: "jobs"

The one data series you should follow to know if the US expansion is in good shape

The one data series you should follow to know if the US expansion is in good shape

Since we experienced a severe economic trauma due to the subprime financial crisis, there has been an almost reflexive disbelief in the durability this economic expansion. There are times when I would count myself amongst the disbelievers. For example, during the shale oil bust, I worried that Fed rate hikes would be the straw that broke the camel’s back. But […]

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What the 33,000 job loss means about where the US economy is right now

What the 33,000 job loss means about where the US economy is right now

The latest jobs number out of the US was a loss of 33,000 jobs in a hurricane-ravaged September. Despite the job losses, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%. Viewed narrowly, this number puts the Fed on hold until December. But viewed more broadly, I believe now is the time to talk about Minsky’s ‘instability of stability’ and what it […]

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Hurricane Irma, jobless claims and economic growth

Irma, the devastating hurricane that hit Florida with its full force, was not as destructive as it could have been. But the impact on the economy, beginning with unemployment, has already been felt. As the Hurricane made its way toward the US mainland, damage estimates ratcheted up. But the ‘Bermuda High’ dampened the impact. Here’s how Bloomberg describes it: The […]

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Quick thoughts on the failure of Fed-engineered unemployment

I am a sceptic of thinking about low unemployment as a bad thing – which is what people who think about policy in terms of the Phillips curve do. Now a study by the Philly Fed is saying that the Phillips Curve is a poor forecasting tool. Will this have any meaningful impact on policy? Some thoughts below

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The failure of the Trump presidency

We are only seven months into Donald Trump’s presidency. And I think we can call it a failure. I’ll have a lot more to say on that momentarily. But I want to flag this as not being a dealbreaker for the US or global economy because people put too much emphasis on the political economy in Washington. But Donald Trump is failing.

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Some thoughts on full employment and this asset-based economic recovery

Some thoughts on full employment and this asset-based economic recovery

I see that Dartmouth economics professor Danny Blanchflower is talking about slack in the US labour market because he believes the Fed is premature in assessing its full employment mandate as fulfilled. I have a few thoughts on this issue I want to flesh out below and the crux of my narrative revolves around the over-dependence on monetary policy as a policy lever.

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How monetary policy entrenches secular stagnation

Recent statements by monetary authorities in Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom tells us rate hikes are possible in all three this year. This trio of English-speaking G7 nations is at a different phase of the monetary policy cycle than Europe or Japan. The implications are unclear though.

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The Fed will continue to tighten despite inflation below target

The Fed will continue to tighten despite inflation below target

New York Fed President William Dudley has reiterating Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s determination to push forward with interest rate hikes despite inflation below 2%. The Fed will continue to have this stance unless and until economic data weakens significantly.

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Jobs data: The US will hike in June amid high structural unemployment

Jobs data: The US will hike in June amid high structural unemployment

Remember the debates about structural unemployment back during the beginning of this recovery. The question was whether policymakers would write off a whole cadre of workers as ‘unemployable’ and formulate policy as if they weren’t important. After the April jobs report, I think we have our answer.

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April 2017 Jobless claims show the US economy chugging along

Claims data are still consistent with an economy adding 200,000 per month, meaning we should expect a snap back from last month’s low figure when the US jobs numbers are released tomorrow.

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Why the March 2017 jobs report won’t change the Fed’s strategy

Why the March 2017 jobs report won’t change the Fed’s strategy

The 98,000 jobs added to payrolls in the US in March were well below the consensus estimate of 178,000, especially when you consider downward revisions to January and February totalled 38,000. I don’t believe this matters for the Fed though; policy tightening will continue apace.

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Jobless claims and ADP data positive ahead of jobs report

Jobless claims and ADP data positive ahead of jobs report

The consensus for the March jobs report is for an addition of 178,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%. Other data show the risk is to the upside here.

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