Post Tagged with: "jobs"

Some thoughts on full employment and this asset-based economic recovery

Some thoughts on full employment and this asset-based economic recovery






I see that Dartmouth economics professor Danny Blanchflower is talking about slack in the US labour market because he believes the Fed is premature in assessing its full employment mandate as fulfilled. I have a few thoughts on this issue I want to flesh out below and the crux of my narrative revolves around the over-dependence on monetary policy as a policy lever.

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How monetary policy entrenches secular stagnation






Recent statements by monetary authorities in Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom tells us rate hikes are possible in all three this year. This trio of English-speaking G7 nations is at a different phase of the monetary policy cycle than Europe or Japan. The implications are unclear though.






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The Fed will continue to tighten despite inflation below target

The Fed will continue to tighten despite inflation below target






New York Fed President William Dudley has reiterating Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s determination to push forward with interest rate hikes despite inflation below 2%. The Fed will continue to have this stance unless and until economic data weakens significantly.






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Jobs data: The US will hike in June amid high structural unemployment

Jobs data: The US will hike in June amid high structural unemployment






Remember the debates about structural unemployment back during the beginning of this recovery. The question was whether policymakers would write off a whole cadre of workers as ‘unemployable’ and formulate policy as if they weren’t important. After the April jobs report, I think we have our answer.






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April 2017 Jobless claims show the US economy chugging along






Claims data are still consistent with an economy adding 200,000 per month, meaning we should expect a snap back from last month’s low figure when the US jobs numbers are released tomorrow.






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Why the March 2017 jobs report won’t change the Fed’s strategy

Why the March 2017 jobs report won’t change the Fed’s strategy






The 98,000 jobs added to payrolls in the US in March were well below the consensus estimate of 178,000, especially when you consider downward revisions to January and February totalled 38,000. I don’t believe this matters for the Fed though; policy tightening will continue apace.






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Jobless claims and ADP data positive ahead of jobs report

Jobless claims and ADP data positive ahead of jobs report






The consensus for the March jobs report is for an addition of 178,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%. Other data show the risk is to the upside here.






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Quick thought on how jobless claims matter






I have heard some people dismiss jobless claims as a data series for two distinct reasons that I want to flag given my view that claims data matter.






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The US economy is doing OK right now

The US economy is doing OK right now






The composite picture I am getting shows the US economy still in that 2%ish channel it has been in for some time. This is lower than certainly President Trump wants and it is also lower than growth levels at cyclical peaks in the past. But it is still far from recession.






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Jobless claims up somewhat to 258,000 in week to 18 March 2017






Overall, the figures tell us the US employment picture is the best it has been since the Great Recession.






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How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits

How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits






I am going to start commenting on the weekly jobless claims figure more actively because I like it as a real-time indicator. For me, it is the best real-time data point we have on how the employment picture intersects with consumption demand and GDP because it is released every week.






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US jobs numbers come in high enough to prompt Fed rate hike






The BLS released the latest employment numbers for the US, the last piece of major economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on whether to raise interest rates. The numbers were good enough, and now a rate hike is all but certain.






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