Post Tagged with: "immigration"

Europe’s delusional economic policies

Europe’s delusional economic policies

Yesterday three big things happened in three different eurozone economies that I think are interrelated. And I am going to tell you what I believe they mean for the European political economy by tying them together in this post under the somewhat provocative banner of “Europe’s delusional economic policies”. The reason for the title is that what I see happening is an anti-growth economic framework which is having political consequences by fomenting nationalism and anti-EU sentiment.

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A Q&A With Prime Economics’ Jeremy Smith on Brexit, Immigration and Democracy

A Q&A With Prime Economics’ Jeremy Smith on Brexit, Immigration and Democracy

On Monday, UK Prime Minister Theresa unveiled her vision for Britain’s exit from the European Union. The Prime Minister couched her outlook in positive terms, speaking of Britain leaving the EU but remaining in Europe. She spoke of EU member states as friends and partners. And she insisted that Britain would prosper after Brexit is achieved. I have written about what the key takeaways from her speech were. But to get a better sense of how realistic her vision is in political and economic terms, I also asked Prime Economics Co-Director Jeremy Smith for his take.

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Britain's Home Secretary Theresa May delivers her keynote address on the second day of the Conservative party annual conference in Manchester, northern England September 30, 2013.  REUTERS/Phil Noble (BRITAIN  - Tags: POLITICS SOCIETY) - RTR3FFSM

Theresa May: Britain will definitely leave the EU

British Prime Minister Theresa May set out details for her vision regarding the UK’s relationship with the EU In a speech today that will please those that campaigned to leave the EU. The Prime Minster, as expected, made clear that this will be a ‘hard Brexit’ because there will be not attempt by government to maintain Britain’s access to Europe’s single market. The biggest piece of new news in her speech was her acquiescence to a vote by Parliament on an EU deal, something that pre-empts a decision by the high court on the government’s ability to use Royal prerogative to bargain on the Queen’s behalf

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Hammond’s ‘whatever it takes’ strategy for a hard Brexit

On Friday, I wrote why, unlike Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, I believe the economic threat of Brexit to the British economy is now higher. The gist of my remarks was that an actual trigger of Article 50 under hard Brexit circumstances is when we should expect any economic impact from diminished consumption and investment. Some brief comments below

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The British political landscape after the EU referendum

The British political landscape after the EU referendum

This is going to be a quick post to update you on where I think things are headed now that we have the two final candidates for UK Prime Minister. My overall view continues to be that the base case is for a moderate negative economic, assuaged by currency, fiscal and monetary offsets, causing the UK to avoid recession but with longer-term hits to growth from trade frictions and a loss to jobs in the financial sector. The issues now are immigration, the timing of the invocation of Article 50 and the single market.

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Democratic values in the EU and the rise of the German right wing

Democratic values in the EU and the rise of the German right wing

In the United States, the Republican Party is baffled by how their electorate has favoured Donald Trump for nomination for President in 2016. Equally, the Democrats are scurrying to quell the massive inflow of votes to Bernie Sanders, whose message resonates with the disaffected. But this disaffection is not isolated to the US. Everywhere one looks in Europe, new, alternative and fringe candidates are getting record support. I want to talk about this in the German context because a broadcast by German public TV makes clear that the rising tide of discontent is everywhere, even in countries like Germany that are doing relatively well.

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Britain, Brexit, and sovereignty

Britain, Brexit, and sovereignty

A destabilized Europe adversely impacts the UK within or without the EU. The UK is tied to Europe in ways that leaving the EU will not sever. Ironically, the UK may find it has less sovereignty if it leaves the EU than within it.

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On Greece’s eventual exit from the eurozone

On Greece’s eventual exit from the eurozone

I don’t think it’s a big secret that I believe Greece will eventually leave the eurozone. I have said this repeatedly. But I have also written that I do not believe that Greece would attempt to do so while Europe’s economic crisis is ongoing. Instead I believe that Greece will exit once things have stabilized but it becomes clear that it faces an interminable jobless recovery.

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On Latvia and Ireland as austerity models

On Latvia and Ireland as austerity models

Earlier in the week, ECB German board member Jörg Asmussen delivered a speech on the challenges of the economic crisis for countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The part which caught most people’s eyes was his commentary on Latvia and its use of austerity as an economic model for the euro zone. Latvia really is not the model though. I have covered this ground before. However, I would like to re-visit it due to some numbers coming out of Ireland, the country I believe is most similar to Latvia within the euro zone.

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Does emigration put Spain’s health and pension system at risk?

Does emigration put Spain’s health and pension system at risk?

By Edward Hugh According to the Economist’s Buttonwood, “desperate times require desperate measures”. I am sure this is right, times in Spain are certainly getting desperate and many of the measures being implemented in Brussels, far from representing radical and innovative solutions look much more like continually closing the barn door after the horse has bolted. The issue Buttonwood draws […]

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Expats’ leaving China in droves is a bad economic signal

Expats’ leaving China in droves is a bad economic signal

By Sober Look Anecdotal evidence suggests that increasing numbers of western expats are beginning to leave China. A recent article that has gone viral in the expat community in China called “Why I’m leaving the country I loved” describes some of the reasons. Mark Kitto provides a blistering critique of the Chinese Communist Party and China’s treatment of foreigners. Prospect: […]

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Daily Commentary: On the Dutch leaving the euro zone

Daily Commentary: On the Dutch leaving the euro zone

This will be a bronze level post. Everyone is talking about the Dutch Freedom Party these days. Geert Wilders, the head of the Freedom Party, is a bit like Marine Le Pen in terms of his appeal: anti-immigrant, nationalist and right wing. He says the Netherlands should leave the euro zone. Here’s what I think of the media circus surrounding this.

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