Post Tagged with: "gold"

The dollar bull market will eventually break something

The dollar bull market will eventually break something

With the fed having raised interest rates for the second time in ten years, in an environment in which US growth looks pretty good, we should expect more hikes to come. The question is whether the economy can withstand the hikes and what they would mean for markets. I have five asset classes to watch: Treasuries, the US Dollar, Emerging Markets, the Japanese Yen, and Gold.

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King dollar and the global economy

King dollar and the global economy

Now that the Greek crisis has died down, we can return to surveying the global economy for clues as to whether global growth will continue unabated. My sense right now is that the major theme to watch remains policy divergence, with the US still in tightening mode. Given weakness in emerging markets like China and Brazil, the prices of commodity exports will remain under pressure, putting a squeeze onto emerging markets dependent on commodity markets with high US dollar corporate indebtedness.

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Everything you always wanted to know about gold

Everything you always wanted to know about gold

Last Thursday, we ran a unique half-hour segment on gold, gold investing and the gold standard over at Boom Bust. The panel was made up of four investors: Marshall Auerback, Rick Rule, Cullen Roche and Peter Schiff. I moderated the panel with regular Boom Bust host Erin Ade. I really enjoyed this format and think we could or should have run the segment for a full hour because there was a lot more ground to cover.

Take a look.

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2

Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2

Today is the time to update you on how my 2014 surprises are faring and why. Just to remind you, the surprise list is based on Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has been conducting for the last thirty years. Surprises are events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which I believe have a more […]

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“I am determined that the American dollar must never again be a hostage in the hands of  international speculators”

“I am determined that the American dollar must never again be a hostage in the hands of international speculators”

Below is the video of Richard Nixon closing the gold window exactly 43 years ago today. Hat tip to Raja Korman

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 1

Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 1

It is about time I updated you on how the ten surprises for 2014 are faring. I actually have 14 but I only get credit on the first ten. The second ten are a bonus round. I am defining my surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which I believe have a more than 50 […]

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Economic and market themes: 2014-03-14

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-14

US data have been better

European periphery market access continues to improve

Dollar weakness may be China-related

Gold continues to get safe haven bid

China’s slowing more likely to be abrupt

Ukraine has become a military issue; contagion will increase

A full-blown emerging markets crisis is now likely

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Part 1

Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Part 1

Brazil goes into a recession.
Spanish GDP growth rebounds and outstrips German GDP growth.
Gold rebounds to beyond $1600 an ounce.
US GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 is below 2%.
10-year US Treasury yields fall below 2.25%.
Abenomics ‘fails’ as Japanese GDP growth slips below 0.5%.

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The move to safe havens may have begun

The move to safe havens may have begun

While the emerging markets are getting a bit of a reprieve today, it bears noting that the move to so-called safe haven assets and currencies has begun. This suggests to me that George Magnus’ warning about this emerging markets crisis must be heeded. I believe a key component to the selloff’s ending will be better economic data out of China as the interest rate hikes taken in several EM countries have not had a beneficial effect. Bonds will continue to rally until the EM crisis has been decisively dealt with. More thoughts below.

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Now Is the Time to Buy Gold

Now Is the Time to Buy Gold

China’s plan seems to be to acquire a total of 6,000 tonnes of gold to put its holdings on a par with developed countries and to elevate the international appeal of the renminbi. Meanwhile in the futures market, the basic problem is that there are many more transactions that could put a claim on gold than there is gold registered for delivery in the COMEX warehouses. There are 107 times more open-interest positions than there is registered gold.

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How’s gold doing?

How’s gold doing?

The chart on gold is not looking very good. And it seems that retail investors have lost interest in the precious metal. Is this a correction within the longer-term gold bull market or is it a new secular bear market for gold? I have some thoughts below?

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How is the eurozone periphery doing?

How is the eurozone periphery doing?

With Spain posting its first gains in GDP in over two years, every media outlet I have seen is trumpeting this as the end of the eurozone recession. I called it early, yes. However, one quarter’s GDP growth does not make recovery. Let’s look at how Europe’s periphery is actually doing.

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