Post Tagged with: "Economy"

Jobless claims data show no disruption yet; Apple touts investment in jobs

Jobless claims data show no disruption yet; Apple touts investment in jobs

Initial claims for unemployment insurance of 220,000 in the week ending January 13 underscore the strength of the US job market. With the 4-week moving average decreasing to 244,500, there is no sign on the horizon of disruption to jobs.

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Some thoughts on this global economic recovery amidst longer-term economic uncertainty

Some thoughts on this global economic recovery amidst longer-term economic uncertainty

For the first time in several years, we are seeing economic growth everywhere in the global economy. it almost seems too good to be true. So I want to put this upbeat economic period in context and talk about where I see the opportunities and where I see the threats for policy makers going forward.

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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to supporters as he takes the stage for a campaign event in Dallas, Monday, Sept. 14, 2015. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Project Syndicate on Trump’s promises to America’s working class citizens

The question: When November comes, will voters shun the GOP because they dislike Trump or will they look at the economy and return the GOP back to two more years of total control?

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Some thoughts on the Walmart minimum pay increase

Some thoughts on the Walmart minimum pay increase

Walmarts plan to raise the minimum pay for some employees to $11 an hour is big news. I also think this is good news for Trump and the Republicans as well as for wage rates in the US.

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Proof that bonds are moving more because of the Fed than China

Proof that bonds are moving more because of the Fed than China

2018 has started with a lot of angst about bond yields. And there is some cause to be concerned. But this owes to an economy that is growing more briskly and to the Fed that has been and probably will be more hawkish than you think.

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Jobs report adds no new information about economy; Fed still on track for 3 hikes in 2018

Jobs report adds no new information about economy; Fed still on track for 3 hikes in 2018

The US Labor Department released a very ho-hum jobs report this morning, showing the unemployment rate in line with expectations at 4.1%, but with the economy only adding 148,000, below the 190,000 expected. Overall, the report provided no new information on the pace of wage growth or the tightness of the labor market and can largely be discounted.

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ADP and jobless claims show a tightening job market

ADP and jobless claims show a tightening job market

The jobless claims report released this morning shows a labor market that is supportive of continued growth. Combined with a much better than expected 250,000 increase in private payrolls in the ADP report, the claims data give us every reason to be optimistic about tomorrows jobs report.

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The eurozone is fully recovered from the sovereign debt crisis

The eurozone is fully recovered from the sovereign debt crisis

The European PMIs that came out today showed an EU economy that is not just in full recovery mode, but booming. Likely the ECB will reduce its level of accommodation in line with this growth.

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2018 begins during a synchronized global economic boom

Given the economic data, I am starting 2018 in a surprisingly downbeat mood. Everything I see is pointing to continued expansion in the global economy.

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As the Fed meets, expect expansion through 2018, but problems thereafter

As the Fed meets, expect expansion through 2018, but problems thereafter

Given where we are right now, I think this expansion will continue through the end of 2018. And I want to talk about what that means in the context of my last post and recent BIS warnings on financial markets.

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We are in the most dangerous period in the business cycle

We are in the most dangerous period in the business cycle

Why would I be writing about ‘danger’ when we are experiencing the first synchronized global economic upturn in over 8 years? It’s the business cycle.

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The economic acceleration in Europe underpins global growth

The economic acceleration in Europe underpins global growth

Since the EU had been a growth laggard due to the European sovereign debt crisis, the pickup in growth there is encouraging. In particular, Italy deserves mention as it has lagged and is where I believe the battle for the EU’s future will be won. Some thoughts below

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