Post Tagged with: "Economy"

Will Brexit’s trigger, now set for 29 March, mean recession?

Will Brexit’s trigger, now set for 29 March, mean recession?

British Prime Minister Theresa May will trigger her country’s exit from the EU on 29 March, a spokesperson for the Prime Minister has confirmed. Afterwards, the clock will be ticking, as the UK will have two years to wind up any negotiations for exit before the country’s membership ends on 29 March 2019 after 46 years. The biggest questions are what this means for the UK economy, the EU economy and whether it is a precedent others will want to follow. Some thoughts below

Read more ›
How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits

How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits

I am going to start commenting on the weekly jobless claims figure more actively because I like it as a real-time indicator. For me, it is the best real-time data point we have on how the employment picture intersects with consumption demand and GDP because it is released every week.

Read more ›
Tomorrow’s jobs number would have to terrible to prevent a Fed hike

Tomorrow’s jobs number would have to terrible to prevent a Fed hike

Tomorrow, the BLS will release the February jobs numbers for the US economy. This is the last piece of major US economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on US monetary policy. All indications are that the number will be good. The ADP employment report released yesterday showed 298,000 private sector jobs added to the economy, the best showing in some 11 years. And January’s report showed non-farm payrolls rising by 227,000.

Read more ›

Great risk to Turkey as relations with Germany sour

Turkey is in the middle of a major political row with Germany. In the wake of the attempted coup d’tat last year, Turkish President Erdogan wants to change its constitution to give the President more power. And because the likely vote will be close and so many Turks live in Germany and the Netherlands, Erdogan’s allies want to campaign in those countries.

Read more ›
Jobless claims are at their lowest level in 44 years

Jobless claims are at their lowest level in 44 years

It’s not the actual level of jobless claims that matters. It’s the change from one year to the next, due to the income shock associated with job losses.

Read more ›
Personal income data shows the US economy on track

Personal income data shows the US economy on track

Yesterday’s release of the Personal Income and Outlays data showed personal income increasing 0.4% in January, ahead of expectations. The numbers demonstrate that the US economy continues to expand at a solid if unspectacular pace. The decline in personal consumption growth is the challenge for continued growth in the US economy with the Fed set to hike rates.

Read more ›
ISM Manufacturing Index at 57.7

ISM Manufacturing Index at 57.7

The ISM manufacturing index showed the US manufacturing sector expanding at a faster rate, with the index hitting 57.7% in February. Importantly, the three major subindices – new orders, production and employment – all showed robust expansion.

Read more ›

This is the biggest takeaway from the US GDP report

The GDP report today showed middling growth of an annualized 1.9% in the US in the last quarter of 2016. That’s not gangbusters, but it’s not bad either. The thing to look at is consumption, because that shows the consumer chugging along. While this revision showed the overall level of GDP growth unchanged, the consumption number was revised way up to 3.0%.

Read more ›

Is Trump just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster?

Forget about the executive orders and Trump press conferences. This is all for show – reality TV, if you will. Concentrate instead on what actually happens, what policies are actually implemented and what impact this is going to have on the economy.

Read more ›
Some incomplete comments on the current US economic environment

Some incomplete comments on the current US economic environment

This is going to be a quick hit post to get some thoughts down on paper because a few threads are coalescing for me that I want to give some coherence to. The essence of the threads revolves around the tension at the Fed between normalizing policy and the ability of the economy to withstand it. My view has been upbeat about the US economy – and that’s been without a trace of recession worry for the last several months. But there are some negative factors coming together that give me pause. And it begins with housing.

Read more ›
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to supporters as he takes the stage for a campaign event in Dallas, Monday, Sept. 14, 2015. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

If Donald Trump remains a cultural warrior, he will fail

Early on in President Trump’s new administration, too much of his energy is being placed on divisive ‘cultural’ issues and not enough attention is being paid to economic policies. To the degree Trump has turned to the economy, much of his policy has been focused on issues that will not yield long-term economic benefits but contain considerable risk, like trade with Mexico and China. And so, while Donald Trump is only a few weeks into his presidency, I think we can begin to take stock of what his presidency will mean for the US economy.

Read more ›
The Trump Rally is over

The Trump Rally is over

A lot of people are saying the rally in shares since early November that took the Dow over 20,000 is exhausted. That may be the case. However, short of a 1987-style crash, we’re going to have see a recession before shares retreat dramatically from present levels. And the data don’t support the thesis that a recession is coming anytime soon. Instead, we are now seeing a re-acceleration of growth from a mid-cycle slowdown. And that is supportive of shares.

Read more ›