Post Tagged with: "Donald Trump"

All politics are local: understanding Trump’s threats and misunderstanding Merkel’s disappointment

All politics are local: understanding Trump’s threats and misunderstanding Merkel’s disappointment






What Angela Merkel was doing this past weekend when she spoke of the need for Europe to “take our fate into our own hands” was using an international issue for domestic purposes.

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More on why Trump’s woes aren’t driving markets

More on why Trump’s woes aren’t driving markets






This is a brief follow-up on the last post I wrote about how markets aren’t freaking out about the Trump scandals. I wrote that “this is only one day. What is happening with Trump – while negative – will not change the arc of the US economy and markets.” And we see that this is true today.






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Markets actually aren’t freaking out about Trump

Markets actually aren’t freaking out about Trump






We are seeing decent selling in today’s US equity markets, with the VIX up some 25%. And most people are pointing to the Trump scandals. But this is only one day. What is happening with Trump – while negative – will not change the arc of the US economy and markets.






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Trump’s abuse of power and monetary offset

Trump’s abuse of power and monetary offset






Here in Washington, the city is abuzz over the crisis engulfing the Trump Administration. But politics are less important to markets than one might expect, despite markets being forward-looking. That’s because it’s often hard to judge what impact the politics will have on interest rates and profits. The negative impact of Trump on the US dollar is palpable, but I […]

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Why Comey’s dismissal is negative for the economy and markets

Why Comey’s dismissal is negative for the economy and markets






It is now clear that Donald Trump dismissed FBI Director James Comey in a fit of pique over the investigations into Trump’s ties to Russia. But this move has already backfired, with the Senate investigation issuing subpoenas to former Trump National Security advisor Michael Flynn. Rather than recede, the Russian investigations will dominate headlines for weeks and months to come. […]

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Competitiveness: two tales of systemic reform with Trump and Macron

Competitiveness: two tales of systemic reform with Trump and Macron






I just finished reading an illuminating article by Andrew Ross Sorkin on healthcare and it got me to thinking about a review of structural reforms by Dani Rodrik which encapsulates the problem with fixes to ‘competitiveness’. The message: target reforms like a laser or they won’t work.






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Trump is just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster, NAFTA edition

Trump is just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster, NAFTA edition






This morning, the Trump Administration called the leaders of Canada and Mexico to tell them that he “agreed not to terminate NAFTA at this time,” showing, yet again, that Donald Trump is much less audacious a President than some expected. The question is why. About two months ago, I surmised that despite all his hot rhetoric, Trump’s bark was worse […]

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Canada’s soft lumber and dairy are easy targets for Trump’s ‘America First’ strategy

Canada’s soft lumber and dairy are easy targets for Trump’s ‘America First’ strategy






Donald Trump is a very media-centric public figure. And because the chatter in DC now is of Trump as a legislative failure during his first hundred days in office, Trump needs a win – and Canada is an easy target. Here’s why.






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The US trade deficit is at a five-year high






This morning data from the US Commerce Department showed the US trade deficit in January at its highest level since March 2012. The numbers were not unexpected as the $48.5 billion deficit was bang on economist estimates.






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What will Trump say about Chinese manipulation at the SOTU address?

What will Trump say about Chinese manipulation at the SOTU address?






Tonight US President Donald Trump is due to give his first state of the union address. From a foreign policy perspective, the big item on the table is Russia. But from an economic perspective, the country we meed to be thinking about is China. Here’s why.






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Why the Trump Administration’s calls for lengthening bond maturity make no sense

Why the Trump Administration’s calls for lengthening bond maturity make no sense






The problem with the Trump administration’s talk about lengthening the maturity of debt issuance is that it confuses the future path of interest rates with the steepness of the yield curve. They talk about locking in low rates. And what they mean is locking in low nominal rates today for fear that interest rates will rise in the future. But what you want to do is issue bonds at the lowest possible rate that you can while still supplying the market with the liquidity — the slug of safe assets — it needs to function properly.






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Two things you should know about Germany’s budget surplus

Two things you should know about Germany’s budget surplus






You probably heard that Germany recorded its third consecutive year of government budget surpluses. This year it was the highest full year surplus since German reunification – 24 billion euros. A lot of the commentary on this will stress whether it’s a good thing or a bad thing that Germany has surpluses. Forget all of that. There are two other things you need to know.






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