Post Tagged with: "Donald Trump"

Trump is just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster, NAFTA edition

Trump is just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster, NAFTA edition

This morning, the Trump Administration called the leaders of Canada and Mexico to tell them that he “agreed not to terminate NAFTA at this time,” showing, yet again, that Donald Trump is much less audacious a President than some expected. The question is why. About two months ago, I surmised that despite all his hot rhetoric, Trump’s bark was worse […]

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Canada’s soft lumber and dairy are easy targets for Trump’s ‘America First’ strategy

Canada’s soft lumber and dairy are easy targets for Trump’s ‘America First’ strategy

Donald Trump is a very media-centric public figure. And because the chatter in DC now is of Trump as a legislative failure during his first hundred days in office, Trump needs a win – and Canada is an easy target. Here’s why.

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The US trade deficit is at a five-year high

This morning data from the US Commerce Department showed the US trade deficit in January at its highest level since March 2012. The numbers were not unexpected as the $48.5 billion deficit was bang on economist estimates.

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What will Trump say about Chinese manipulation at the SOTU address?

What will Trump say about Chinese manipulation at the SOTU address?

Tonight US President Donald Trump is due to give his first state of the union address. From a foreign policy perspective, the big item on the table is Russia. But from an economic perspective, the country we meed to be thinking about is China. Here’s why.

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Why the Trump Administration’s calls for lengthening bond maturity make no sense

Why the Trump Administration’s calls for lengthening bond maturity make no sense

The problem with the Trump administration’s talk about lengthening the maturity of debt issuance is that it confuses the future path of interest rates with the steepness of the yield curve. They talk about locking in low rates. And what they mean is locking in low nominal rates today for fear that interest rates will rise in the future. But what you want to do is issue bonds at the lowest possible rate that you can while still supplying the market with the liquidity — the slug of safe assets — it needs to function properly.

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Two things you should know about Germany’s budget surplus

Two things you should know about Germany’s budget surplus

You probably heard that Germany recorded its third consecutive year of government budget surpluses. This year it was the highest full year surplus since German reunification – 24 billion euros. A lot of the commentary on this will stress whether it’s a good thing or a bad thing that Germany has surpluses. Forget all of that. There are two other things you need to know.

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Is Trump just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster?

Forget about the executive orders and Trump press conferences. This is all for show – reality TV, if you will. Concentrate instead on what actually happens, what policies are actually implemented and what impact this is going to have on the economy.

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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to supporters as he takes the stage for a campaign event in Dallas, Monday, Sept. 14, 2015. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

If Donald Trump remains a cultural warrior, he will fail

Early on in President Trump’s new administration, too much of his energy is being placed on divisive ‘cultural’ issues and not enough attention is being paid to economic policies. To the degree Trump has turned to the economy, much of his policy has been focused on issues that will not yield long-term economic benefits but contain considerable risk, like trade with Mexico and China. And so, while Donald Trump is only a few weeks into his presidency, I think we can begin to take stock of what his presidency will mean for the US economy.

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Trump is dead wrong on Germany. It won’t matter though

Trump is dead wrong on Germany. It won’t matter though

The FT is reporting that US President Donald Trump sees Germany as a ‘currency manipulator’ of sorts, a view bound to have negative consequences on bilateral relations. What’s more, according to the Financial Times, Trump’s top trade advisor, Peter Navarro, has accused Germany of using a “grossly undervalued” euro to “exploit” the United States as well as Germany’s own EU monetary union partners. This makes three countries in Trump’s sights: China, Mexico and, now, Germany.

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Germany is the biggest loser in 2017

Germany is the biggest loser in 2017

As Donald Trump attempts to make wholesale shifts in American domestic and foreign policy, there are bound to be winners and losers economically and politically. Leading German government representatives from Sigmar Gabriel to Frank Walter Steinmeier to Angela Merkel have all taken a vocal stance against Trump’s policies. But the Trump administration appears to be moving in a direction that would weaken Germany’s hand. And so, Germany risks being one of the losers politically in 2017 – something that plays into Vladimir Putin’s hands.

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Why Canada is the country to watch on Trump’s trade policy

Why Canada is the country to watch on Trump’s trade policy

If you want to know whwere Trump is headed on trade, don’t look at China or Mexico. Don’t even look at the UK. Canada is the country to watch for a number of reasons. First of all, Canada has an existing deal with the US and Mexico under NAFTA. That matters in terms of understanding where Trump is headed on trade. Moreover, Canada is also the 2nd largest trading partner for the US behind the European Union. Finally, the fact that Canada is finishing off its EU trade deal just as the UK is getting ready to exit puts it in a unique position in reconfiguring world trade alliances – wth an Anglo-American group involving Canada a potential outcome.

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The potential for military confrontation due to Trump’s foreign policy

A few weeks ago I was writing about a likely pivot away from China toward Russia in the Trump administration. And my conclusion was that a violent pivot created a lot of unknown unknowns – to use a Rumsfeld phrase. It is the uncertainty and unpredictability that is the biggest problem in my view. I was mostly talking about trade and the economy though. But given China’s latest statements about potential military confrontation, I wanted to follow up with some brief thoughts on the geopolitical side of things.

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