Browsing Tag

demand destruction

Earnings, Employment and Inflation

Recent data suggest we are at the point where energy prices are creating demand destruction. Economic growth has slowed to below 2.% in the US. Further, ISM data suggest that companies are at the breaking point in their ability to absorb…

More cautious optimism?

Overall, I would say that the exogenous shocks have added to downside risk. I would expect economic weakness in the second half of 2011.If economic weakness does materialize in the US, I would expect lower long-term interest rates. Many…

China’s coal problem

From the International Business Times and Andy Lees at UBS: Reports that central China's Hubei province has joined a growing list of regions facing coal shortages with a warning that it is very likely to start power rationing later this…

Oil: Where is the spare capacity?

This morning's note from UBS' Andy Lees addresses something about which I am sceptical regarding the escalating Libyan conflict: global spare oil capacity.I am in the same camp with Jeremy Grantham. Call it peak resources, peak oil,…

More Food for Thought

Bill Fleckenstein was back talking to Dylan Ratigan about the source of rising oil prices. (See the last Fleckenstein video here). Clearly, supply constraints and increased demand in emerging markets play the central role in creating a…
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