Post Tagged with: "bubble"

Bitcoin’s big problem: The modern state can make anything it chooses generally acceptable as money

Bitcoin’s big problem: The modern state can make anything it chooses generally acceptable as money

Even allowing for the recent gyrations — If bitcoin and its equivalents could deliver what its champions promise, what’s not to like? Well, American economist Abba Lerner said “The modern state can make anything it chooses generally acceptable as money”. That’s the rub.

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Grantham: US asset bubble to pop in 2019

Grantham: US asset bubble to pop in 2019

Veteran value investor Jeremy Grantham says that we won’t see an imminent end to the US bull market. He expects a melt-up, not a meltdown. But Grantham goes on to say that we will see an asset bubble implosion in 2019, with as much as 50% downside.

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Places to avoid for commercial real estate investment

Places to avoid for commercial real estate investment

Recently I have indicated I see a lot of problems in asset markets despite the economic acceleration in Europe, Japan, and the US. Commercial real estate is a problem that I want to highlight briefly since I believe it will be a locus of distress in the next global downturn.

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The economic acceleration in Europe underpins global growth

The economic acceleration in Europe underpins global growth

Since the EU had been a growth laggard due to the European sovereign debt crisis, the pickup in growth there is encouraging. In particular, Italy deserves mention as it has lagged and is where I believe the battle for the EU’s future will be won. Some thoughts below

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Overbought

Overbought

“I had to cover my shorts.” That’s what my friend Matt told me after the company came out with its quarterly earnings and issued upbeat projections. I asked Matt, “how long are you going to keep shorting these companies. This is like the 10th time you’ve been forced to cover.” I don’t remember anymore how Matt responded. But I do […]

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An anecdote on the German housing bubble

An anecdote on the German housing bubble

I don’t know if there is a German housing bubble or even whether there will be one. I do know that we hear a lot about it in the press – the result of zero, even negative, interest rates. So let me give you a little anecdote from my trip to Germany last week.

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Property, inequality and financial crises

Property, inequality and financial crises

So where did they get the money?

It’s an all too familiar story. Inflows of foreign capital, mainly from Scandinavian banks, attracted by low interest rates and a population hungry for credit – credit advanced, of course, against property. Latvian house prices soared and there was a construction boom. Easy credit, wealth effects and incomes from construction and real estate activities also fuelled a consumption boom: suddenly Latvia, one of the poorest countries in Europe, was flooded with Porsches and Bentleys.

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Comments on jobs in the U.S., buy-to-let in the U.K., and rules-based monetary policy

Comments on jobs in the U.S., buy-to-let in the U.K., and rules-based monetary policy

No one story sticks out for me today. So I thought I would make a few comments on the stories making the rounds today in the Internet. Let’s start in the U.S.

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Country by country macro update, part 2, September 2014

Country by country macro update, part 2, September 2014

Yesterday, I did a broad overview of four markets of interest to global investors. And I wanted to continue my thoughts on this here with a few more markets and with a deeper dive into some of my thinking about the UK. Britain, Part 2: I want to take the UK on first, because I am doing a headline story […]

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The Fed is already creating the next bubble

The Fed is already creating the next bubble

Last week, I wrote a fairly comprehensive piece laying out some of the macro issues around the Fed and other central banks’ ultra-easy monetary policy. The gist of that piece was that, due to the political economy, monetary policy is now seen by policy makers as a good way to ‘steer’ the cyclical economy through peaks and troughs. Fiscal policy, […]

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Economic and market themes: 2014-06-27 Fed will trigger the next crisis

Economic and market themes: 2014-06-27 Fed will trigger the next crisis

The title here is a bit provocative I know. But it is really something I stole from an article about Stephen Roach’s view that I will use as a jumping off point for my Friday review.

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Some thoughts on the new Internet bubble

Some thoughts on the new Internet bubble

Going back to my comments from yesterday about the utility of macro, I want to talk a bit about credit excesses and valuation manias. The overall gist here is that manias are endemic to our system because psychology plays a big part in social systems. And while it is debatable how well macro policy can “lean against”, it is clear […]

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