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Additions to Credit Crisis Timeline: 02 June 2008

Below are only the latest writedown stories from the web as of June 2nd. If you are linking in from DailyKos and looking for the full timeline of writedown news and the credit crisis, visit my credit crisis timeline, the most comprehensive on the web. Also see my list of Bankrupt Global Financial Institutions. Latest Additions2008 05 26 UBS Falls […]

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More warnings on regional banks

The President of the Boston Fed, Eric Rosengren, has in effect said that small and regional banks are at risk in the next wave of writedowns for U.S. financial institutions. He sites construction loan exposure in particular as a place to worry. I give the story of small and regional exposure to construction loans six months before it hits the […]

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Irish property dam about to burst

Irish property dam about to burst

Along with the residential housing bust in Ireland, a commercial real estate (CRE) bust is definitely on the table. According to the newspaper the Irish Independent up to 10 billion euros of writedowns are possible for the Irish property developers and banks.

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Spain: Week’s News Round-Up

This is a Spanish-language only News Round-Up on the economic situation in Spain from El Pais. Zapatero pisa el acelerador por la crisis ¿Crisis? ¿Qué crisis? “Escenario de dificultad”, “periodo de ajuste fuerte” o “desaceleración profunda de la economía”. Éstos son algunos de los términos que empleó ayer el presidente del Gobierno, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, para referirse a la […]

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Bradford & Bingley to issue profit warning

Bradford & Bingley to issue profit warning

This in from the Times today: Bradford & Bingley is in big trouble. They are trying to do a rights issue and issue a profit warning at the same time. Can anyone tell me how one gets shareholders to pony up another 88p to buy a stock that is down from 2 quid 90 and that is writing down investments […]

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Chart of the day: Real GDP growth

Chart of the day: Real GDP growth

I don’t trust the U.S. government’s inflation number for measuring real GDP. The annual rate of inflation in this measurement is only 2.2%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is running at a 4.0% clip. That’s as large a differential as you’ll see between two government inflation statistics.

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The revised GDP number: pure fiction

The revised GDP number: pure fiction

The GDP number was revised upwards from 0.6% growth to 0.9% growth. However, what is most interesting is the GDP implicit price deflator. This is the index number the BEA uses to get from nominal GDP to real GDP, the inflation-adjusted number everyone hears on TV and in the news. Nominal GDP was up only 3.5%. So what is your guess about the inflation number the BEA used to get the 0.9% growth number you hear on TV? 3% inflation, 4% inflation?

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Case-Shiller Time Machine

I was just reviewing the Case-Shiller local metropolitan indices and saw that as the decline gets steeper, each of the 20 markets is reverting back to price levels 3 and 4 years in the past. So, here’s what I have on each metro area as of March 2008. You last saw these prices in: 1. AZ-Phoenix——–March 20052. CA-Los Angeles—-June 20043. […]

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Round-Up: 30 May 2008

Double, double, oil and trouble Thursday, May 29, 2008 9:41 AM Is it ‘peak oil’ or a speculative bubble? Neither, really. AFTER oil hit its recent record of $135 a barrel, consumers and politicians started to lash out in every direction. Fishermen in France have been blockading ports and pouring oil on the roads in protest. British lorry drivers have […]

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Germany: Inflation tames retail sales

Bloomberg News reported that German retail sales for April were disappointing for the second month in a row. Retail sales growth is negative in Germany, adjusted for inflation.The reason: inflation. Consumers in Germany are losing spending power as inflation erodes the value of their earnings. Sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, fell 1.7 percent from March, when they dropped […]

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The Dollar

The U.S. Dollar (USD) seems to have stabilized against most major floating currencies. This includes the British Pound, The Euro, The Canadian, Aussie and New Zealand Dollar, the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. However, many market participants hedge funds included, do not think the USD’s fall has been stopped. What is most worrisome at this moment for the USD […]

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Another writedown risk: Chapter 7 Bankruptcy

The risks going forward for financial institutions and their capital base are large and growing. The blog CalculatedRisk has reported on yet another story that should give chills to bankers. This one is very significant: Chapter 7 bankruptcy. A judge recently ruled against Cleveland-based regional National City in a case involving stated income loans. These loans, otherwise known as Liar […]

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