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What Schäuble is really saying about Macron and Europe

What Schäuble is really saying about Macron and Europe






German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble talked to German weekly Der Spiegel about the election of Emmanuel Macron as French President, and this interview is being widely quoted in the English-language press without benefit of a translation. Having read the article, I would say there is nothing extraordinary in his commentary. None of his positions have changed. Let me explain what he said below.

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Weekly initial claims down to 236,000 as Q2 heads to 3% growth






The labor market in the US is tighter today than it was at the same period last year. This, in conjunction with the last jobs report, gives cover to the Fed to hike rates in June.






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Why Comey’s dismissal is negative for the economy and markets

Why Comey’s dismissal is negative for the economy and markets






It is now clear that Donald Trump dismissed FBI Director James Comey in a fit of pique over the investigations into Trump’s ties to Russia. But this move has already backfired, with the Senate investigation issuing subpoenas to former Trump National Security advisor Michael Flynn. Rather than recede, the Russian investigations will dominate headlines for weeks and months to come. […]

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Competitiveness: two tales of systemic reform with Trump and Macron

Competitiveness: two tales of systemic reform with Trump and Macron






I just finished reading an illuminating article by Andrew Ross Sorkin on healthcare and it got me to thinking about a review of structural reforms by Dani Rodrik which encapsulates the problem with fixes to ‘competitiveness’. The message: target reforms like a laser or they won’t work.






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More Europe

More Europe






At the height of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, German leader Angela Merkel was openly calling for ‘more Europe, not less’. With Emmanuel Macron elected to the Presidency of France on that platform, Merkel has perhaps her only chance to make good on that vision. First she needs to get re-elected though. But if she gets that far — and her party’s election win last night in Schleswig-Holstein suggests she will — she has to meet Macron with a reformer’s fervour or lose Europe to nationalism.






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Some thoughts on healthcare, inequality, and Baumol’s disease

Some thoughts on healthcare, inequality, and Baumol’s disease






Baumol was a giant in promoting entrepreneurship. And most importantly here, his theory on rising costs in labor intensive industries is something that the Nobel committee considered in 2003 and should have given him an award for.






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Jobs data: The US will hike in June amid high structural unemployment

Jobs data: The US will hike in June amid high structural unemployment






Remember the debates about structural unemployment back during the beginning of this recovery. The question was whether policymakers would write off a whole cadre of workers as ‘unemployable’ and formulate policy as if they weren’t important. After the April jobs report, I think we have our answer.






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What the tension in the oil market means

What the tension in the oil market means






As we await the US jobs data, it bears remembering that oil is a big wildcard both on in terms of consumption and investment. Right now, oil is plunging, down as much as $14 a barrel for the Brent variant and $17 a barrel for WTI since mid-April. The question is whether the rout continues.






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Some brief thoughts on Brexit negotiations and the Norway model

Some brief thoughts on Brexit negotiations and the Norway model






All negotiations are mechanisms to split the benefits of mutually acceptable outcomes. The point is to figure out if there actually is a mutually acceptable outcome, and then to get as much of the benefit for one’s side as possible. The threat of walking away from a deal is the most powerful tool in extracting benefits.






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April 2017 Jobless claims show the US economy chugging along






Claims data are still consistent with an economy adding 200,000 per month, meaning we should expect a snap back from last month’s low figure when the US jobs numbers are released tomorrow.






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Can Macron reform Europe?: A mental model for thinking about the economics






Having written the last piece on the intersection of Austrian economics and Post-Keynesian economics, I was asking myself the question: so what? Yes, the punch line of the piece was that both of these schools of thought lead to a world view marked by worry. But, as my friend Marcus, always asks me: how to make money from that. Here’s my answer – and I’m going to use Emmanuel Macron as the example.






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Where Post-Keynesians and Austrians meet on economics

Where Post-Keynesians and Austrians meet on economics






World views derived both from Austrian Economics and Post-Keynesian Economics suggest that so-called secular stagnation and the resulting political radicalization in Europe and the United States are here to stay. Here’s why.






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