In the next recession, muni bonds will be hit and local governments will default. The Fed will use Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act to buy municipal paper. And if they need even more authority, Congress will grant it.
Many US public sector pension funds are underfunded. This will impact local governments' solvency in the next downturn. It could also threaten the safety and security of the municipal bond market. So the Fed may end up playing a role.
Productivity is an important yardstick for measuring the value of goods and services workers. A recent study by McKinsey demonstrates that wages and demand are key to raising it.
The potential for a state and municipal fiscal and public pension crisis is a defining issue for the next downturn. Underfunding guarantees problems. The question is whether the next downturn crystallizes a crisis.
Personal interest income will rise as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Banks will be slow to raise rates on deposits and on CDs. Nevertheless, as the Fed raises rates, this is a problem.
Rotating into emerging market equities as the US market soars is Jeremy Grantham's recommendation. That's a daunting prospect for most US retail investors. Here's why.
Albert Edwards says the Fed will tighten more aggressively. The increase in interest rates will be a stimulant at first. But eventually, the higher rates will catch up with debtors.
Rising inflation expectations are pushing interest rates higher. But Fed moves matter more. If the data continue to show growth in the economy, markets will move toward the Fed and interest rates will rise.