Political risk in Europe is centered on outcomes in Germany and Italy. First, the SPD could decide not to participate in another coalition with Merkel. And second, the 5-Star Movement won a plurality of the votes.
Regardless of what happens in NAFTA, we are going to see the Trump Administration put its 'America First' trade policy in play. Likely within the month, tariffs are coming.
With Donald Trump set to give his State of the Union address, Democrats and Independents have gone from positive in 2017 to negative in 2018, while Republicans have gone in the other direction.
Gallup has done a deeper dive into the data in its latest poll, which I highlighted last night. The numbers show small businesses content with the state of the economy, giving the Trump Administration high marks in this area.
Now that the Trump tax cuts have been passed and US companies have had the opportunity to incorporate the changes into their projections, we are starting to see big payoffs, particularly for banks. This development is supportive of further…
The question: When November comes, will voters shun the GOP because they dislike Trump or will they look at the economy and return the GOP back to two more years of total control?
I’ve looked at Ian Bremmer's list of potential geopolitical crisis triggers and the one that stands out for me is North Korea. And so I want to use the bombing of Kosovo as a historical precedent to explain what could be driving US…