Fear political populism and the loss of democracy but embrace economic populism as necessary.
Gallup has done a deeper dive into the data in its latest poll, which I highlighted last night. The numbers show small businesses content with the state of the economy, giving the Trump Administration high marks in this area.
We see economic growth everywhere in the global economy for the first time in many years. Let’s put this economic period in context and talk about opportunities and threats.
The question: When November comes, will voters shun the GOP because they dislike Trump or will they look at the economy and return the GOP back to two more years of total control?
I’ve looked at Ian Bremmer’s list of potential geopolitical crisis triggers and the one that stands out for me is North Korea. And so I want to use the bombing of Kosovo as a historical precedent to explain what could be driving US policymakers’ thinking. Downside risk is high.
Italy’s election has the potential for some surprises. The Five Star Movement, which is polling first in surveys, has pledged a referendum on the euro if Brussels does not change its fiscal rules. Berlusoni’s Forza Italia and Salvini’s Northern League are critical of the EU and EMU, but rather than jettison the euro, they talk about having a parallel currency.
The working economic model in North America and Europe is one in which the central bank and the fiscal agents are working at cross-purposes, with the central bank doing the heavy lifting if stimulus is desired.
When we talk about winners and losers in Euroland, the natural question is, “how can you make everybody a winner?”. And I think this is important while Euroland goes through a cyclical upswing since that’s when reforms can actually be the least painful. Will the ‘German Model’ be the one to save Europe?
My first words out of the gate this year at Credit Writedowns were that “given the economic data, I am starting 2018 in a surprisingly downbeat mood.” And I went on to say I don’t know why, but that I would tell you why when I figured it out.
Yesterday I promised you to “look at individual economic data points and tell you why I think they bolster the case for optimism about the economic trajectory.” But before I get into that let me tell you why I still worry about the foundation of this global recovery. And a lot of it has to do with the pace of growth and with inequality. Let’s look at the US here.
There has been much debate on the determinants of the vote for Brexit. This column uses newly released data from the Understanding Society study to examine the characteristics of individuals who were for and against Brexit. Unhappiness contributed to the vote to leave the EU, but this was driven by feelings about individual financial situations rather than a general dissatisfaction with life. Brexit does not appear to have been caused by the old – only those under the age of 25 were substantially pro-Remain.
This is a thought piece. And so it’s going to be relatively) brief since I haven’t fleshed out all of my ideas here. But I want to run something by you based on a piece Matt Klein wrote over at FT Alphaville on macro policy. Let me point to the […]