Political Economy

Italian Election–Two Months and Counting

Italian Election–Two Months and Counting

Italy’s election has the potential for some surprises. The Five Star Movement, which is polling first in surveys, has pledged a referendum on the euro if Brussels does not change its fiscal rules. Berlusoni’s Forza Italia and Salvini’s Northern League are critical of the EU and EMU, but rather than jettison the euro, they talk about having a parallel currency.

Let me tell you why I’m still worried before detailing the positive economic data

Let me tell you why I’m still worried before detailing the positive economic data

Yesterday I promised you to “look at individual economic data points and tell you why I think they bolster the case for optimism about the economic trajectory.” But before I get into that let me tell you why I still worry about the foundation of this global recovery. And a lot of it has to do with the pace of growth and with inequality. Let’s look at the US here.

Brexit was a cry of financial pain and not the influence of the old

Brexit was a cry of financial pain and not the influence of the old

There has been much debate on the determinants of the vote for Brexit. This column uses newly released data from the Understanding Society study to examine the characteristics of individuals who were for and against Brexit. Unhappiness contributed to the vote to leave the EU, but this was driven by feelings about individual financial situations rather than a general dissatisfaction with life. Brexit does not appear to have been caused by the old – only those under the age of 25 were substantially pro-Remain.