Category: Markets

More on why Trump’s woes aren’t driving markets

More on why Trump’s woes aren’t driving markets

This is a brief follow-up on the last post I wrote about how markets aren’t freaking out about the Trump scandals. I wrote that “this is only one day. What is happening with Trump – while negative – will not change the arc of the US economy and markets.” And we see that this is true today.

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Trump’s abuse of power and monetary offset

Trump’s abuse of power and monetary offset

Here in Washington, the city is abuzz over the crisis engulfing the Trump Administration. But politics are less important to markets than one might expect, despite markets being forward-looking. That’s because it’s often hard to judge what impact the politics will have on interest rates and profits. The negative impact of Trump on the US dollar is palpable, but I […]

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What the tension in the oil market means

What the tension in the oil market means

As we await the US jobs data, it bears remembering that oil is a big wildcard both on in terms of consumption and investment. Right now, oil is plunging, down as much as $14 a barrel for the Brent variant and $17 a barrel for WTI since mid-April. The question is whether the rout continues.

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Why the euro crisis will happen again and Italy will be involved

Why the euro crisis will happen again and Italy will be involved

What happened in 2010 with Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland will happen again. But this time, Italy will be the first domino to fall. And when it does fall, Italian sovereign and bank credit risk will skyrocket. Caveat Emptor.

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What will policy normalization mean for credit markets (wonkish)

What will policy normalization mean for credit markets (wonkish)

Given recent hawkish Fed statements and the potential for even more than three hikes, all of this is bullish for longer-duration Treasuries but much less so for auto ABS, high yield and emerging markets.

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Why the Fed minutes show the FOMC moving toward Bullard and balance sheet shrinkage

Why the Fed minutes show the FOMC moving toward Bullard and balance sheet shrinkage

What about running down the balance sheet — reverse QE if you will? I think this is where the Fed minutes offered some new thinking.

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You should be concerned about falling car prices and Ally’s profit warning

Yesterday, Ally Financial warned that profits would underperform expectations. Now, they dd not say that profits would fall or that they were taking credit writedowns. Neverthless, the warning is an important marker and should be of grave concern. Here’s why.

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UK interest rate dissenter signals policy divergence may be coming to an end

As expected, the Bank of England left rates unchanged at a record low 0.25% in today’s Monetary Policy Committee decision. There was a dissent, however, with soon to be departing MPC member Kristin Forbes wanting a quarter-point rise.

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The Fed will continue to raises rates, even amid uneven economic data

The Fed will continue to raises rates, even amid uneven economic data

Today the Federal Reserve raised the base USFed Funds interest rate a quarter percentage point to the range between 0.75% and 1.00%. There was only one dissent from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. And because this move was anticipated by everyone, the real question now goes to what comes next.

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The shale oil bubble

The shale oil bubble

Was the shale oil capital expenditure explosion simply a bubble? What trendline does this chart follow going forward and what does it mean for price? These are some fundamental questions that need to be answered.

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Hedging against rising global political uncertainty

Hedging against rising global political uncertainty

Starting in 2007, global markets were buffeted by a series of financial and economic crises that created the greatest deflationary scare since the Great Depression. We have left out-and-out crisis mode. But the challenges are still considerable, especially politically.

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More on the oil oversupply and OPEC’s lost swing production dominance

More on the oil oversupply and OPEC’s lost swing production dominance

Bloomberg oil analyst Javier Blas reported earlier today that Saudi Arabia has told OPEC that it lifted oil production in February, despite the ongoing OPEC production cut agreement with Russia.

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