Category: Economy

Jobless claims data show no disruption yet; Apple touts investment in jobs

Jobless claims data show no disruption yet; Apple touts investment in jobs

Initial claims for unemployment insurance of 220,000 in the week ending January 13 underscore the strength of the US job market. With the 4-week moving average decreasing to 244,500, there is no sign on the horizon of disruption to jobs.

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Some thoughts on the Walmart minimum pay increase

Some thoughts on the Walmart minimum pay increase

Walmarts plan to raise the minimum pay for some employees to $11 an hour is big news. I also think this is good news for Trump and the Republicans as well as for wage rates in the US.

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Galbraith: The Fed is like the little Dutch boy with the finger in the dike

Galbraith: The Fed is like the little Dutch boy with the finger in the dike

There hasn’t been inflation in the economy since the early 1980s. It collapsed with the end of the Soviet Union and with the rise of China as a supplier for consumer goods.

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Job openings may have peaked in the US

Job openings may have peaked in the US

While the month-to-month numbers were ordinary, the trend for the past few months is down.

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Consumer credit: largest gain in 16 years and well ahead of expectations

Consumer credit: largest gain in 16 years and well ahead of expectations

Economic data coming out of the United States continue to show a robust consumer-led expansion. The latest consumer credit report showed the largest monthly gain since November 2001, with outstanding consumer credit rising by $27.95 billion. Expectations were for $19 billion.

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Demographics are adding to lower US growth

Demographics are adding to lower US growth

When you look at what the US has gone through over the last decade, in terms of the job market, what stands out is the total decimation of jobs during the Great Financial Crisis. But something else stands out too — and that’s demographics.

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Growth in non-farm payrolls peaks mid-cycle

Growth in non-farm payrolls peaks mid-cycle

You don’t get the same level of job growth after eight years of an economic upturn as you do after one. And this is borne out by the statistics.

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Accommodative Officials and Synchronized Upturn Drive Markets

Accommodative Officials and Synchronized Upturn Drive Markets

The investment climate is being shaped by two powerful forces.  First is the very accommodative policy stance.  In addition to the accommodative monetary policy, fiscal policy is also supportive. 

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Jobs report adds no new information about economy; Fed still on track for 3 hikes in 2018

Jobs report adds no new information about economy; Fed still on track for 3 hikes in 2018

The US Labor Department released a very ho-hum jobs report this morning, showing the unemployment rate in line with expectations at 4.1%, but with the economy only adding 148,000, below the 190,000 expected. Overall, the report provided no new information on the pace of wage growth or the tightness of the labor market and can largely be discounted.

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Wages might finally be beginning to rise

Wages might finally be beginning to rise

The Wall Street Journal has a piece out about wage rates in the tightest urban markets like Minneapolis. And what they found is that wages rates in these markets is beginning to rise. That doesn’t mean inflation will rise. However, it does put more pressure on the Fed.

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ADP and jobless claims show a tightening job market

ADP and jobless claims show a tightening job market

The jobless claims report released this morning shows a labor market that is supportive of continued growth. Combined with a much better than expected 250,000 increase in private payrolls in the ADP report, the claims data give us every reason to be optimistic about tomorrows jobs report.

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ISM Manufacturing index shows US in brisk expansion; Fed to respond

ISM Manufacturing index shows US in brisk expansion; Fed to respond

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December 2017, marking the 103rd consecutive month of economic expansion in the US. The numbers point to a continued brisk pace of expansion, likely inviting multiple Fed policy responses in early 2018.

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