Category: Economy

Why the March 2017 jobs report won’t change the Fed’s strategy

Why the March 2017 jobs report won’t change the Fed’s strategy

The 98,000 jobs added to payrolls in the US in March were well below the consensus estimate of 178,000, especially when you consider downward revisions to January and February totalled 38,000. I don’t believe this matters for the Fed though; policy tightening will continue apace.

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Jobless claims and ADP data positive ahead of jobs report

Jobless claims and ADP data positive ahead of jobs report

The consensus for the March jobs report is for an addition of 178,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%. Other data show the risk is to the upside here.

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Water desalination as the cure for shortages

Water desalination as the cure for shortages

A couple of days ago, a study released by Nature Nanotechnology said a new graphene filter could be a major step forward in removing salt from seawater and making it safe for drinking

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The latest poor numbers coming out of the auto sector

US auto sales have been down persistently on a year-over-year basis during the past several months. March was no different, according to figures released today.

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Quick thought on how jobless claims matter

I have heard some people dismiss jobless claims as a data series for two distinct reasons that I want to flag given my view that claims data matter.

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Was it right to be on recession watch in 2016?

We are now three months into 2017 and we can look back on 2016 as a fairly good year economically for the US. So given that backdrop, was it right to worry about a recession in 2016? And what does that say about 2017? Here’s my view below.

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The US economy is doing OK right now

The US economy is doing OK right now

The composite picture I am getting shows the US economy still in that 2%ish channel it has been in for some time. This is lower than certainly President Trump wants and it is also lower than growth levels at cyclical peaks in the past. But it is still far from recession.

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Jobless claims up somewhat to 258,000 in week to 18 March 2017

Overall, the figures tell us the US employment picture is the best it has been since the Great Recession.

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How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits

How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits

I am going to start commenting on the weekly jobless claims figure more actively because I like it as a real-time indicator. For me, it is the best real-time data point we have on how the employment picture intersects with consumption demand and GDP because it is released every week.

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US credit growth is decelerating across a variety of areas

US credit growth is decelerating across a variety of areas

This week all eyes will be on the Fed because of its expected interest rate hike and the messaging that will accompany its policy decision. But credit markets should also be focused elsewhere, because credit growth has been decelerating across a wide array of markets for months now. And this trend has not let up in recent months.

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US jobs numbers come in high enough to prompt Fed rate hike

The BLS released the latest employment numbers for the US, the last piece of major economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on whether to raise interest rates. The numbers were good enough, and now a rate hike is all but certain.

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Tomorrow’s jobs number would have to terrible to prevent a Fed hike

Tomorrow’s jobs number would have to terrible to prevent a Fed hike

Tomorrow, the BLS will release the February jobs numbers for the US economy. This is the last piece of major US economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on US monetary policy. All indications are that the number will be good. The ADP employment report released yesterday showed 298,000 private sector jobs added to the economy, the best showing in some 11 years. And January’s report showed non-farm payrolls rising by 227,000.

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