These are conflicting narratives, yes. But they don't have to be because, as Minsky quipped, stability breeds instability.
Oil prices are at a point where Donald Trump may consider using the using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to provide modest price relief to consumers.
Global equities have rallied. Of course, stock prices are not the end all and be all, but it stands in stark contrast to the cries that the sky is falling.
Editor's note: This post was first published on Patreon on 27 June 2018. The United States governments spends money by keystroke. And though it is forced by law to sell bonds when its accounts at the Fed run low, this artificial…
The Fed is likely to continue to talk up the US economy. And I believe markets will react. With the yield curve at 32 basis points spread between 2- and 1-year Treasuries, we still have scope for further curve flattening.
GDPNow for the second quarter is still at a breathtakingly high 4.5%. And it's beginning to look like we are going to come in well above 3% growth for the quarter. Consensus estimates are at 3.5%. Meanwhile the yield curve continues to…
Once upon a time, Fed policy wasn't about finetuning macro outcomes. It was about maintaining the safety, siundness and stability of our banking and credit system.