Articles By: Edward Harrison

Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

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Here are my most recent posts

Job openings may have peaked in the US

Job openings may have peaked in the US

While the month-to-month numbers were ordinary, the trend for the past few months is down.

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Consumer credit: largest gain in 16 years and well ahead of expectations

Consumer credit: largest gain in 16 years and well ahead of expectations

Economic data coming out of the United States continue to show a robust consumer-led expansion. The latest consumer credit report showed the largest monthly gain since November 2001, with outstanding consumer credit rising by $27.95 billion. Expectations were for $19 billion.

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Demographics are adding to lower US growth

Demographics are adding to lower US growth

When you look at what the US has gone through over the last decade, in terms of the job market, what stands out is the total decimation of jobs during the Great Financial Crisis. But something else stands out too — and that’s demographics.

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Growth in non-farm payrolls peaks mid-cycle

Growth in non-farm payrolls peaks mid-cycle

You don’t get the same level of job growth after eight years of an economic upturn as you do after one. And this is borne out by the statistics.

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The 1999 bombing of Kosovo as historical precedent for Trump’s approach to North Korea

The 1999 bombing of Kosovo as historical precedent for Trump’s approach to North Korea

I’ve looked at Ian Bremmer’s list of potential geopolitical crisis triggers and the one that stands out for me is North Korea. And so I want to use the bombing of Kosovo as a historical precedent to explain what could be driving US policymakers’ thinking. Downside risk is high.

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Jobs report adds no new information about economy; Fed still on track for 3 hikes in 2018

Jobs report adds no new information about economy; Fed still on track for 3 hikes in 2018

The US Labor Department released a very ho-hum jobs report this morning, showing the unemployment rate in line with expectations at 4.1%, but with the economy only adding 148,000, below the 190,000 expected. Overall, the report provided no new information on the pace of wage growth or the tightness of the labor market and can largely be discounted.

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Wages might finally be beginning to rise

Wages might finally be beginning to rise

The Wall Street Journal has a piece out about wage rates in the tightest urban markets like Minneapolis. And what they found is that wages rates in these markets is beginning to rise. That doesn’t mean inflation will rise. However, it does put more pressure on the Fed.

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ADP and jobless claims show a tightening job market

ADP and jobless claims show a tightening job market

The jobless claims report released this morning shows a labor market that is supportive of continued growth. Combined with a much better than expected 250,000 increase in private payrolls in the ADP report, the claims data give us every reason to be optimistic about tomorrows jobs report.

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Grantham: US asset bubble to pop in 2019

Grantham: US asset bubble to pop in 2019

Veteran value investor Jeremy Grantham says that we won’t see an imminent end to the US bull market. He expects a melt-up, not a meltdown. But Grantham goes on to say that we will see an asset bubble implosion in 2019, with as much as 50% downside.

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ISM Manufacturing index shows US in brisk expansion; Fed to respond

ISM Manufacturing index shows US in brisk expansion; Fed to respond

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December 2017, marking the 103rd consecutive month of economic expansion in the US. The numbers point to a continued brisk pace of expansion, likely inviting multiple Fed policy responses in early 2018.

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The government versus the central bank: monetary policy as the only game in town

The government versus the central bank: monetary policy as the only game in town

The working economic model in North America and Europe is one in which the central bank and the fiscal agents are working at cross-purposes, with the central bank doing the heavy lifting if stimulus is desired.

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European reform and the German model to the rescue

European reform and the German model to the rescue

When we talk about winners and losers in Euroland, the natural question is, “how can you make everybody a winner?”. And I think this is important while Euroland goes through a cyclical upswing since that’s when reforms can actually be the least painful. Will the ‘German Model’ be the one to save Europe?

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