Articles By: Edward Harrison

Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

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Here are my most recent posts

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Baumol’s cost disease, aging societies and inflation expectations






Quick hit here. I have been banging on about lowflation, repeatedly suggesting it is here to stay. The Fed, on the other hand begs to differ and is pre-emptively normalizing rates, as a result. No matter how you look at this, there’s a rub though: We all consume different products, so we each experience a different individual inflation rate. Even […]

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The wisdom of crowds and government bond markets

The wisdom of crowds and government bond markets






When you look at how markets are positioned, it’s clear that a lot of people see continued low growth for years to come – a veritable Japanification of the US economy. I hope this is one of those times that markets are wrong. But I am not willing to bet on the hope, just the opposite.






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The oil price cliff dive will end the prospect of double-barrelled tightening

The oil price cliff dive will end the prospect of double-barrelled tightening






A pause is being considered at the Fed, even by hawkish FOMC members. The oil price crash now gathering steam makes this pause more likely. Maybe Bullard’s infamous low dot on the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections is the right way to look at Fed policy.






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How monetary policy entrenches secular stagnation






Recent statements by monetary authorities in Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom tells us rate hikes are possible in all three this year. This trio of English-speaking G7 nations is at a different phase of the monetary policy cycle than Europe or Japan. The implications are unclear though.






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Abenomics and Japanese growth

Abenomics and Japanese growth






Only during the Great Recession did nominal GDP break out of a tight range – and then, it did so to the downside. We are nowhere near the top of the range now, nor should we expect to be anytime soon.






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How Brexit makes Britain poorer, forcing Carney to stay his hand

How Brexit makes Britain poorer, forcing Carney to stay his hand






The risk in the UK is an inflationary recession. For now, Mark Carney is resisting a rate hike. But how long will the Bank of England hold out? And how long can British consumers keep spending if real wages are falling? Two things would ease this pressure. One is some sort of fiscal support for real wages. The second is the fall in oil prices. As in the US, I see oil prices as key.






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Is the new rout in oil getting worrying?

Is the new rout in oil getting worrying?






Earlier this morning, the New York Mercantile Exchange was quoting delivery for light sweet crude in July at $43.30. That’s a far cry from the $55 average that analysts had expected for 2017 as recently as last month. And all indications are that this price deflation is not transitory, but lasting. The selloff in oil brings year-to-date losses to some […]

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The Fed will continue to tighten despite inflation below target

The Fed will continue to tighten despite inflation below target






New York Fed President William Dudley has reiterating Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s determination to push forward with interest rate hikes despite inflation below 2%. The Fed will continue to have this stance unless and until economic data weakens significantly.






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Could the UK be headed for an inflationary recession?

Could the UK be headed for an inflationary recession?






The Bank of England kept its key policy rate unchanged at a record low 0.25% . Three dissents show how a weak currency and rising inflation are making it harder to keep rates low. The worst case scenario is an inflationary recession, which would topple Theresa May.






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The Fed’s financial stability concerns, auto subprime edition

The Fed’s financial stability concerns, auto subprime edition






Below are some data points from recent credit statistics and analyses, showing trends in the auto credit sector.






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The Fed’s financial stability concerns before its June hike

The Fed’s financial stability concerns before its June hike






Hiking rates now after a monster commercial real estate cycle has already developed is akin to closing the stable doors after the horse has already bolted. But this may be a concern of the Fed. Let’s see what the Spring 2017 OCC Risk Assessment says when it comes out.






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Why commercial real estate will be central to the next credit bust

Why commercial real estate will be central to the next credit bust






On Sunday, macro strategist Lawrence McDonald made three tweets about corporate real estate I think merit highlighting. They show a corporate real estate market that has been white hot during this particular business cycle. And that means it is one of the credit sectors to watch for signs of distress






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