Jobs day in the US in 2021 will be the same for me today for the third month running. It's all about the start and stop nature in the leisure and hospi…
Edward Harrison
In the week ending February 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 745,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's re…
Edward Harrison
I think we're close enough to the end of the Covid era to start talking more about what happens when this period is over. By that, I don't mean that CO…
Edward Harrison
I have two subjects on my mind today. One is interest rates and the other is equity markets. I wrote a brief Twitter thread on how I'm thinking about t…
Edward Harrison
I have an interview with Mark Ritchie coming up in an hour and I wanted to write a specific post about the changing tone on Credit Writedowns because o…
Edward Harrison
Oh, how the world has changed! The threat of a mutant-inspired viral wave and lockdown still lurks in the background, yes. Even so, the balance of risk…
Edward Harrison
For several weeks now, as the new virulent coronavirus strains have begun to circulate, I have called 2021 a foot race between those strains and the va…
Edward Harrison
Two separate issues here today. The first is on the yield curve in the US. And the second is on the slow vaccine rollout in the EU and its impact on th…
Edward Harrison
I had some bullish economic thoughts last week. But I also embedded a warning about support for bonds being broken. Yields at the long end of the US Tr…
Edward Harrison
Let's look at upside potential instead of downside risk today. And then let's put it in the context of the three yield curve outcomes I have posited. T…
Edward Harrison
Happy Friday! Let's use this time to run through the latest employment numbers and what they mean regarding the economic outlook. And so, I want to sta…
Edward Harrison
Economically, I would say we're out of the woods for a recession now except to the degree mutant variants force new lockdowns. Four data points, real q…
Edward Harrison