The Credit Writedowns Newsletter
Subscribe
About
Archive
Help
Sign in
Archive
Top
Discussion
About
Three yield curve outcomes and grey swans
I am in an even more hopeful mood now than ever. But, at the same time, I still have my worries about downside risks given how euphoric asset markets h…
Edward Harrison
20 hr ago
5
Sign up to like post
Subscribe
Login
Privacy
Terms
Information collection notice
1
Share
The reflation trade and three yield curve outcomes
As the new year has begun, I've been thinking a lot about the 'look through' narrative that sees the post-pandemic light at the end of a dark tunnel. W…
Edward Harrison
Jan 15
4
Sign up to like post
Subscribe
Login
Privacy
Terms
Information collection notice
Share
Jump in initial claims to 965,000
Jobless claims data around the holiday season is marred by lots of seasonality. And so, only in the coming weeks are we likely to get a 'clean' look at…
Edward Harrison
Jan 14
2
Sign up to like post
Subscribe
Login
Privacy
Terms
Information collection notice
Share
Some thoughts on this latest wave of coronavirus
While job losses may be the norm for the next few months, I have actually been somewhat encouraged by data out of the US. That was the macro takeaway f…
Edward Harrison
Jan 13
2
Sign up to like post
Subscribe
Login
Privacy
Terms
Information collection notice
1
Share
Job losses may be the norm for a few months
In mid-December, when I was pegging market and economic trends, I said "Don't be surprised if we see job losses in future US jobs reports in the new ye…
Edward Harrison
Jan 8
3
Sign up to like post
Subscribe
Login
Privacy
Terms
Information collection notice
Share
Hope and Risk
I know you want me to talk about how angry Trump supporters stormed the Capitol yesterday just five miles from where I live. But actually, let's leave …
Edward Harrison
Jan 7
3
Sign up to like post
Subscribe
Login
Privacy
Terms
Information collection notice
Share
ADP data point to downside economic risk in US
The numbers coming out of the US today from ADP show the negative impact that coronavirus-related economic rollbacks have had on employment. The data p…
Edward Harrison
Jan 6
5
Sign up to like post
Subscribe
Login
Privacy
Terms
Information collection notice
Share
Happy new year 2021
Happy New Year, everyone. I am going to leg into this new year slowly with a thought piece - no charts, no quotes, no numbers. I had thought about upda…
Edward Harrison
Jan 4
4
Sign up to like post
Subscribe
Login
Privacy
Terms
Information collection notice
1
Share
Musings on initial claims, the US economy and Tesla as year end draws near
For the second week in a row the raw jobless claims data have fallen, as has the uptick in the rate of increase in Covid-19 infections and death. Meanw…
Edward Harrison
Dec 23, 2020
4
Sign up to like post
Subscribe
Login
Privacy
Terms
Information collection notice
Share
Pegging market and economic trends
In today's piece, I want to focus only on what's been happening rather than making any conjectures about what's likely to happen. Sometimes, it pays ju…
Edward Harrison
Dec 18, 2020
4
Sign up to like post
Subscribe
Login
Privacy
Terms
Information collection notice
2
Share
Laying Out The Bullish Case
It may seem a bit odd for me to talk about why someone might buy shares on a day when retail sales in the US were down 1.1%. But that's what's been on …
Edward Harrison
Dec 16, 2020
3
Sign up to like post
Subscribe
Login
Privacy
Terms
Information collection notice
Share
Contextualizing the horrible jobless claims numbers
So it turns out the dip in initial jobless claims last week was just an artifact of the Thanksgiving holiday. This week we played catch up and then som…
Edward Harrison
Dec 10, 2020
5
Sign up to like post
Subscribe
Login
Privacy
Terms
Information collection notice
2
Share
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts