Goodbye to Credit WritedownsGood morning everyone, I have some exciting — and also - sad news to tell you today. First, I am going to Bloomberg as a Senior Editor. And I am going …
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Risks to growth and inflation helping keep long rates downAs I write this, the US 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 1.457%, well under the trading range it had established during this quarter. And there are a …
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What's your model on how real GDP grows durably?Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a p…
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Do inflation expectations even matter anymore?We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%. That's above expectations. And, we saw a mild uptick in US Treasury bond yields on the back of the number. But I am…
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The Death of the US Treasury Bond VigilanteEarlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months. And this happened literal…
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US jobs report fails to reinforce tapering narrative; bad news is good newsThe US jobs report came in south of expectations, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 559,000 in May but the unemployment falling to a pandemic low of…
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ADP and claims data show US employment progressWe got reads from two US jobs data series this morning. And both showed continued forward progress. To me, this speaks to the potential for tapering of…
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The macro crystal ball: macro framing and historical antecedentsHappy June.!! Listen, I want to start this month with a thought piece rather than a data piece. And this is going to be a pretty long post. But I think…
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Where were claims at this point in the last cycle?To understand the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve's tapering timetable being accelerated, I believe we have to understand how quickly the US emplo…
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How transitory is transitory, housing edition?In yesterday's post, the question was this: how bad do inflationary impulses have to get - even if they're just transitory - to matter? The Fed is tell…
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How Transitory is Transitory?The interplay between a central bank's forward guidance and market expectations are where the rubber hits the road on long-term interest rates. It's no…
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Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the futureI was talking to my colleague Jack Farley about the financial news flow earlier today. (We're recording a Real Vision Daily Briefing at 4:30PM EDT). He…
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