The Credit Writedowns Newsletter
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I am in an even more hopeful mood now than ever. But, at the same time, I still have my worries about downside risks given how euphoric asset markets h…
Edward Harrison
20 hr ago 1
As the new year has begun, I've been thinking a lot about the 'look through' narrative that sees the post-pandemic light at the end of a dark tunnel. W…
Edward Harrison
Jan 15
Jobless claims data around the holiday season is marred by lots of seasonality. And so, only in the coming weeks are we likely to get a 'clean' look at…
Edward Harrison
Jan 14
While job losses may be the norm for the next few months, I have actually been somewhat encouraged by data out of the US. That was the macro takeaway f…
Edward Harrison
Jan 13 1
In mid-December, when I was pegging market and economic trends, I said "Don't be surprised if we see job losses in future US jobs reports in the new ye…
Edward Harrison
Jan 8
I know you want me to talk about how angry Trump supporters stormed the Capitol yesterday just five miles from where I live. But actually, let's leave …
Edward Harrison
Jan 7
The numbers coming out of the US today from ADP show the negative impact that coronavirus-related economic rollbacks have had on employment. The data p…
Edward Harrison
Jan 6
Happy New Year, everyone. I am going to leg into this new year slowly with a thought piece - no charts, no quotes, no numbers. I had thought about upda…
Edward Harrison
Jan 4 1
For the second week in a row the raw jobless claims data have fallen, as has the uptick in the rate of increase in Covid-19 infections and death. Meanw…
Edward Harrison
Dec 23, 2020
In today's piece, I want to focus only on what's been happening rather than making any conjectures about what's likely to happen. Sometimes, it pays ju…
Edward Harrison
Dec 18, 2020 2
It may seem a bit odd for me to talk about why someone might buy shares on a day when retail sales in the US were down 1.1%. But that's what's been on …
Edward Harrison
Dec 16, 2020
So it turns out the dip in initial jobless claims last week was just an artifact of the Thanksgiving holiday. This week we played catch up and then som…
Edward Harrison
Dec 10, 2020 2
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