The jobs number was great, but it’s all about the Fed now

This morning, I gave you an initial reaction to the jobs number, saying:
A bad number won’t change the Fed’s forward guidance because the Fed has a tightening bias. But that bias means that a good number could tip us toward four rate hikes in 2019 from three.
Let me give you a more in-depth view now.
Market reaction
Before the number came out, I didn't expect a big market reaction. But I think we are seeing the market move to my view more strongly than I anticipated because the 10-year is up to 3.214% on the back of the bullish jobs report. The big difference is that we are seeing a bear steepening, with the 10-year trading 30 basis points wide of the 2-year. I see that as a mildly positive signal regarding economic expectations even though I am personally expecting the US economy to s...


As this site is now reader-supported via Patreon, the remainder of this article is only available to subscribers at a specific patronage level. Articles at patronage levels BRONZE, SILVER, and GOLD are denoted by the categories in blue capital letters above the post. Posts categorized DAILY are available to both SILVER and GOLD patrons.

Click here to join. Your readership is greatly appreciated!

Registered users can log in by entering details here or below.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More