The big picture: deflation is back
There was a global growth slowdown that I flagged late in 2014. And it came to the fore in 2015, derailing the US economy and pushing the Fed's rate hike timetable back. Here we are with another one. I flagged it earlier this year in March and April and again in April. I believe it is now being confirmed.
And yesterday morning, I highlighted the bear market in crude oil as a sign of slowing growth. US shale producers are pumping flat out, ostensibly to keep up with demand. But the reality is that US crude inventories have risen sharply in recent weeks. And so, today, US crude is set for its longest daily losing streak since 1984, with WTI quoted at $60.22 as I write this.
Again, this is about demand, not just supply. The nowcast work by Gavyn Davies' fi...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.