Back to the Fed

The midterm election is over. So we can go back to worrying about the Fed!

I ended yesterday's political economy piece saying:
My sense, here, is that a divided Congress means we are in a ride it out period economically. There are no more big fiscal plays coming on that front until after 2020. Going forward, the economy, is, therefore mostly about momentum and the Fed.
So let's discuss this for a bit.
Global growth is slowing
The question is not whether global growth is slowing. It is whether that slowdown will fully encompass the US. If you look at predictive econometric models, I like what Gavyn Davies has shown over the past business cycle. So let me quote from his latest at the FT. Here's how he starts:
The drop in global equities in October was remarkable for its extent, the frequenc...

As this site is now reader-supported via Patreon, the remainder of this article is only available to subscribers at a specific patronage level. Articles at patronage levels BRONZE, SILVER, and GOLD are denoted by the categories in blue capital letters above the post. Posts categorized DAILY are available to both SILVER and GOLD patrons.

Click here to join. Your readership is greatly appreciated!

Registered users can log in by entering details here or below.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More