The narrative that emerged after the nomination battle over Brett Kavanaugh was dominated by claims that the Republican base had been energized by disgust at the so-called liberal mob that protested Kavanaugh's nomination. But I believe that narrative is almost certainly a false, partisan one, likely designed to marginally impact turnout. What is really going on is a surge in enthusiasm by young people, women and minorities. On the whole, this favors Democrats.
Here's the latest polling data on voter enthusiasm.
The biggest criticism of polls like this is that they're inaccurate. When voters finally cast ballots, the outcomes are too different from the polls. This particular poll says its margin of error is 3.5 percentage points. But what if the margin is 7 percentage points? Another p...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.