The post-Kavanaugh midterm narrative is wrong

The narrative that emerged after the nomination battle over Brett Kavanaugh was dominated by claims that the Republican base had been energized by disgust at the so-called liberal mob that protested Kavanaugh's nomination. But I believe that narrative is almost certainly a false, partisan one, likely designed to marginally impact turnout. What is really going on is a surge in enthusiasm by young people, women and minorities. On the whole, this favors Democrats.

Here's the latest polling data on voter enthusiasm.

The biggest criticism of polls like this is that they're inaccurate. When voters finally cast ballots, the outcomes are too different from the polls. This particular poll says its margin of error is 3.5 percentage points. But what if the margin is 7 percentage points? Another p...

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