I was off last week when the Fed raised rates a quarter percentage point. But I promised to comment on the Fed's action when I returned. I am doing so now.
Before I left, I wrote a piece about two weeks ago on the steepening of the yield curve. And even though this is considered bearish, over the near-term, I think it's a bullish signal. It's only when it impacts credit that bear steepening becomes bearish. Some thoughts below
Defining bear steepening
What I said last time was that rising rates are considered bearish irrespective of whether the yield curve is flattening or steepening. As long as short-term interest rates are rising, the curve dynamic gets the moniker 'bear' for either bear flattening or bear steepening. But these two situations are telling us very different things.
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.