In the past year, Italy has been a source of a lot of investor angst, with 10-year yields reaching levels not seen since 2014. Despite the simmering crisis there, I am not concerned about short- or medium-term outcomes because I believe the euro system has more stability than is appreciated. Below I want to outline how I think about Italy and what that will mean regarding the range of potential outcomes economically.
Italy as a paragon of fiscal virtue
Let's look at how the Italians view themselves, first, because I think it's important regarding how the politics will play out. I wrote a post in June on how Italian political figures might say that "at any point in time over the past 25 years, Italy has had a primary surplus (before paying interest) among the highest in Europe". And what th...
As this site is now reader-supported via Patreon, the remainder of this article is only available to subscribers at a specific patronage level. Articles at patronage levels BRONZE, SILVER, and GOLD are denoted by the categories in blue capital letters above the post. Posts categorized DAILY are available to both SILVER and GOLD patrons.
Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.