A lot of people are still watching the flattening yield curve and distress in EM. And while I think both of these events are important, I am looking at a lot of other market signals, particularly US domestic credit markets. Here are some signals I looking at.
Look at housing
As you know, the way I am thinking about monetary policy is less about signals like the yield curve and more about acceleration and deceleration of credit. So as the Fed raises rates, I am looking for signs of stress that first appears in credit growth deceleration. One sector that matters is housing. Look at this chart on existing home sales.
Source: Trading Economics
There is a distinct deceleration in existing home sales growth. Right now, you could say home sales are largely flat. And if you look at data versus...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.