Quick post here. Earlier today, I sent out a note about the Bank of England's rate hike basically saying a large part of it was about the urge to normalize. When I wrote that I hadn't seen Gavyn Davies' most recent missive on central banks. And I wanted to point it out here because his message dovetails with mine.
Running out of ammo
The link to the full post is here. But let me quote the key bits I want you to take away:
For a recent Brookings Paper, Fed authors Michael Kiley and John Roberts conducted simulations on the main macroeconomic models used by the Fed to demonstrate the likely effects of a permanent decline in r* to only 1 per cent, roughly half its pre-2008 level. They conclude that the Fed’s policy rate “should” be below the effective lower bound (ELB) about 30-40 per cent of...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.