1 Big Idea: Signs of a 2018 top are everywhere
Last night's weekly post got me thinking about the markers for the end of economic cycle top. It was the surge in M&A activity that did it for me. Take a look at this chart from Axios:
Notice how pro-cyclical the data are. M&A activity is always pro-cyclical. And right now many key drivers are:
Companies' need to chase earnings growth through acquisition to bolster stock valuations after a long business cycle
Companies moving into ancillary industries to chase that growth (in organic, non-M&A terms think of Uber with UberEats or Tesla with battery manufacturing) and justify valuation
A relaxed anti-trust environment
Private equity companies chasing deals at higher multiples with lower margins of error
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.