I would argue that it makes sense to talk about a Goldilocks economy yet still worry about the longer-term downside risk of recession. These are conflicting narratives, yes. But they don't have to be. Let me explain how I think about them below
The superlatives of Goldilocks
First, take a look at this brief list of superlatives about the US economy I just pulled together:
GDPNow for the last quarter shows a whopping inflation-adjusted anticipated growth of 4.5%.
Real GDP growth is due to hit 3% in year-over-year terms for the only the second period since 2006.
The headline unemployment rate hit the lowest level in 49 years in May.
"Global initial public offerings (IPOs) for tech firms are off to their hottest start since the dot-com bubble in 2000." - Quartz
Private equity funds are ...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.