Editor's Note: This post was originally published on 2 July 2018 on Patreon.
The latest revision to the GDPNow tracker came in at 4.1% growth today. With Q2 now over, we are going to get just a few more data points before the first GDP growth estimate is released at the end of the month. I continue to believe we will see the numbers well above 3% in real terms. And the forward looking indicators suggest this momentum will continue well into the future.
Support for growth from personal outlays looks good
At its core, real GDP is about consumption because that counts for two-thirds of GDP and because income and consumption drive investment over the longer term. The personal outlay numbers released on Friday were good. Personal outlay growth is rising modestly. And nothing on the horizon...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.