Fed overtightening risk now begins in earnest with yield curve at my predicted 25 basis points

This is a quick note here that the yield curve has flattened to the point where two-year yields are only 25 basis points lower than 10-year yields. I have been predicting this outcome for several months and see this as a level to worry about the Fed's ability to engineer a reversal. Some thoughts below
The 25 basis point prediction
I was just looking through the Credit Writedowns archives to see when I first started predicting we would get to 25 basis points by mid-year and I found this from March:
As I wrote last night, my timetable was for economic weakness to appear later. The weak data this early into the synchronized global growth phase has surprised me. But the fact that the Treasury curve has resumed flattening makes sense. The data call for it.

A string of poor data has stall...


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