What the latest jobs report says about the US economy

Note: This post first appeared on Patreon on 1 Jun 2018

The jobs report released this morning in the US confirms the upbeat view that initial jobless claims data have been sending. While the participation rate remains weak, the headline and comprehensive unemployment figures have touched cycle lows. And job growth is still robust, despite the length of this business cycle. Some comments follow below.

You've probably seen the most important numbers by now. Let me highlight the most important figures and the takeaways.

The unemployment rate: the headline rate ticked down another notch to 3.8%. What's important to remember about this number is the impact it has on policy. The Fed's interest rate forecasts are predicated on a year-end number of 3.8. Yet, here we are at 3.8% in May. That me...


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