I have talked a decent bit about the jobs report in my last two posts here. So I want to say more about what the information in that report says to Fed members, given recent Fed guidance and speeches. I am going to lean heavily on comments by Lael Brainard as she is the policy dove whose more hawkish comments tell you how the central tendency of thought is shifting at the Fed.
First, let's get the lead-up right. The Yellen Fed took us off zero in 2015, promising a data-dependent policy path as it raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade. And indeed, the Fed was true to its word. Despite calling for a multi-hike 2016, the Fed stood pat until December 2016 before raising rates again.
In 2017, the Fed also moved to tighten via the balance sheet, a message Jerome Powell delivered. ...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.