The Fed’s fourth 2018 rate hike: proof positive of my accelerated timetable warnings

We have had the night to digest the Fed rate hike and the accompanying changes in the summary of economic projections. As I wrote yesterday, the move to a fourth hike was balanced on a knife's edge. In the last go round, it was 8 to 7 in favour of 3. This time it is 8 to 7 in favour of 4 hikes.

Below are just a few thoughts on where we are headed next.
Still moving toward my 25 basis point bogey
The thing that most interests me here is how markets react. And we have seen is a narrowing of interest rate spreads to below 40 basis points between 2- and the 10-year Treasuries. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury bond remains anchored below 3%, with all of the tightening feeding into the front end of the curve.

I have been saying that after this rate hike announcement, I expected the curve...


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